How accurate are the yield predictions?
65–70% directional accuracy on 24h forecasts, 58–63% weekly. Bond yields are heavily influenced by central bank policy which can shift quickly.
How often are bond forecasts updated?
Every hour. Extra recalculations within 15 min after FOMC decisions, CPI/NFP releases, Treasury auctions, or ECB/Bo J policy changes.
What does it mean when yields drop in the yearly forecast?
Falling yields mean bond prices rise. The model expects central banks to cut rates over the coming year, which pushes yields lower and bond values higher.
Why is the Japan JGB yield forecast rising?
The Bank of Japan has been gradually normalizing policy away from ultra-low rates. The model projects continued slow upward pressure on Japanese yields.
What's the 2s10s spread shown in Market Pulse?
It's the difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Positive = normal curve, negative = inverted curve (recession signal). Currently +22bp (mildly positive).
Is this financial advice?
No. Educational only. Bond trading involves risk of loss. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor.
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