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Financial Select Sector SPDR Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

Updated: February 25, 2026 at 16:51 UTC

From

▲ +1.34%TA Bearish · Focus Macro + technical

Forecast Summary

Timeframe	Predicted Price	Past	Historical	Insight
Tomorrow	$52.55 ▲ +1.77%	Yesterday	$50.98 ▲ +1.34%	Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).
Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).
Week	$54.13 ▲ +4.81%	Last Week	$52.59 ▼ -1.76%	7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Month	$56.64 ▲ +9.69%	Last Month	$53.41 ▼ -3.27%	Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Year	$54.70 ▲ +5.94%	Last Year	$50.96 ▲ +1.38%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Years	$56.06 ▲ +8.56%	5 Years Ago	$32.31 ▲ +59.90%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Tomorrow$52.55▲ +1.77%

Yesterday$50.98▲ +1.34%

Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).

Week$54.13▲ +4.81%

Last Week$52.59▼ -1.76%

7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.

Month$56.64▲ +9.69%

Last Month$53.41▼ -3.27%

Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

Year$54.70▲ +5.94%

Last Year$50.96▲ +1.38%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5 Years$56.06▲ +8.56%

5 Years Ago$32.31▲ +59.90%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Price Chart

HistoricalForecastBullishBearish

Technical Analysis

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Key Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
RSI 14	78.9	Bullish
MACD	0.04	Neutral
SMA 50	$53.09	Below
SMA 200	$50.58	Above
EMA 20	$49.99	Above

Historical Data

Open$50.98

Start Date1999-01-01

Day Range$51.17 – $51.67

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range$50.73 – $54.44

24h Volumen/a

90D Range$50.73 – $56.40

Circulatingn/a

52W Range$43.92 – $56.40

Max Supplyn/a

Open	$50.98	Start Date	1999-01-01
Day Range	$51.17 – $51.67	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	$50.73 – $54.44	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	$50.73 – $56.40	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	$43.92 – $56.40	Max Supply	n/a

Support & Resistance Levels

$53.18R3 — major ceiling

$52.72R2 — swing resistance

$52.27R1 — near-term resistance

$51.67Current PriceXLF

$50.63S1 — near-term supportSupport

$49.08S2 — structure support

$47.53S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near $52.27; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around $50.63; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 1.22% daily realized volatility.

Price Milestones

Key levels & historical context

Recent$51.67Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High$51.67Local High0.00%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low$51.17Local Low-0.96%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target$56.64Model 1M+9.63%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target$54.70Model 1Y+5.87%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario$56.06Model 5Y+8.51%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

Forecast Accuracy

How our model has performed

83%

Directional

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (1.22% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

Our algorithm is re-calibrated weekly using the latest price action, volatility regime, and indicator signals. Accuracy varies by timeframe — short-term momentum is more reliable than long-term projections.

Tomorrow

86%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

84%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

81%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

76%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±2.5%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

Investment Scenarios

If you invest $1,000 in XLF today

Bullish Case

$1120.00

+12.00% from current

Target Price$57.86

ScenarioBreakout continuation

Probability35%

Base Case

$1096.29

+9.63% from current

Target Price$56.64

ScenarioTrend-following baseline

Probability37%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

Target Price$47.53

ScenarioVolatility drawdown

Probability28%

Basis: Scenario engine blends live drift (+9.69% / 30D) and realized volatility (1.22% daily).

Correlation Matrix

30-day rolling · how XLF moves with other assets

	XLF	TLT	DIA	SPY	QQQ	XLE
XLF	1.00	-0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.96
TLT	-0.99	1.00	-0.98	-0.97	-0.96	-0.98
DIA	0.99	-0.98	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.96
SPY	0.99	-0.97	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.94
QQQ	0.98	-0.96	0.99	1.00	1.00	0.92
XLE	0.96	-0.98	0.96	0.94	0.92	1.00

Forecast Factors

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bullish · 72/100

24H drift+1.77%

7D drift+4.81%

30D drift+9.69%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bullish Setup · 69/100

RSI78.6 · Bullish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack2/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Risk-On Tentative · 59/100

1M outlook+9.69%

1Y outlook+5.94%

5Y outlook+8.56%

Frequently Asked Questions

Q What is the XLF forecast for tomorrow?

XLF is projected near $52.55 versus the latest reference around $51.67. That implies a modeled move of +1.77% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for XLF?

The weekly model points to $54.13, which maps to an expected drift of +4.81% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is $56.64 (+9.69%), while the 1-year target is $54.70 (+5.94%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near $56.06 with a modeled change of +8.56%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around $52.27, while nearest support is around $50.63. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly $51.17 to $51.67. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.