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Energy Select Sector SPDR Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

Updated: February 25, 2026 at 16:51 UTC

From

▼ -1.04%TA Bullish · Focus Macro + technical

Forecast Summary

Timeframe	Predicted Price	Past	Historical	Insight
Tomorrow	$55.47 ▲ +1.68%	Yesterday	$55.10 ▼ -1.04%	Short-term bias is up with moderate daily volatility (~1.54%).
Short-term bias is up with moderate daily volatility (~1.54%).
Week	$57.30 ▲ +5.03%	Last Week	$54.78 ▼ -0.47%	7-day projection follows positive momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows positive momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Month	$59.82 ▲ +9.67%	Last Month	$49.22 ▲ +10.78%	Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Year	$61.86 ▲ +13.39%	Last Year	$44.82 ▲ +21.65%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Years	$66.88 ▲ +22.61%	5 Years Ago	$24.08 ▲ +126.48%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Tomorrow$55.47▲ +1.68%

Yesterday$55.10▼ -1.04%

Short-term bias is up with moderate daily volatility (~1.54%).

Week$57.30▲ +5.03%

Last Week$54.78▼ -0.47%

7-day projection follows positive momentum and near-term trend alignment.

Month$59.82▲ +9.67%

Last Month$49.22▲ +10.78%

Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

Year$61.86▲ +13.39%

Last Year$44.82▲ +21.65%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5 Years$66.88▲ +22.61%

5 Years Ago$24.08▲ +126.48%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Price Chart

HistoricalForecastBullishBearish

Technical Analysis

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Key Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
RSI 14	90.3	Bullish
MACD	0.04	Neutral
SMA 50	$56.17	Below
SMA 200	$50.57	Above
EMA 20	$50.42	Above

Historical Data

Open$55.10

Start Date1999-01-01

Day Range$54.19 – $55.37

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range$47.00 – $55.18

24h Volumen/a

90D Range$42.64 – $55.18

Circulatingn/a

52W Range$38.22 – $55.18

Max Supplyn/a

Open	$55.10	Start Date	1999-01-01
Day Range	$54.19 – $55.37	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	$47.00 – $55.18	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	$42.64 – $55.18	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	$38.22 – $55.18	Max Supply	n/a

Support & Resistance Levels

$56.27R3 — major ceiling

$55.75R2 — swing resistance

$55.22R1 — near-term resistance

$54.53Current PriceXLE

$49.56S1 — near-term supportSupport

$43.77S2 — structure support

$42.35S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near $55.22; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around $49.56; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 1.33% daily realized volatility.

Price Milestones

Key levels & historical context

Recent$54.53Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High$55.37Local High+1.55%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low$54.19Local Low-0.62%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target$59.82Model 1M+9.71%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target$61.86Model 1Y+13.45%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario$66.88Model 5Y+22.66%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

Forecast Accuracy

How our model has performed

82%

Directional

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (1.33% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

Our algorithm is re-calibrated weekly using the latest price action, volatility regime, and indicator signals. Accuracy varies by timeframe — short-term momentum is more reliable than long-term projections.

Tomorrow

85%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

83%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

80%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

75%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±2.5%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

Investment Scenarios

If you invest $1,000 in XLE today

Bullish Case

$1226.59

+22.66% from current

Target Price$66.88

ScenarioBreakout continuation

Probability35%

Base Case

$1097.11

+9.71% from current

Target Price$59.82

ScenarioTrend-following baseline

Probability37%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

Target Price$50.16

ScenarioVolatility drawdown

Probability28%

Basis: Scenario engine blends live drift (+9.67% / 30D) and realized volatility (1.33% daily).

Correlation Matrix

30-day rolling · how XLE moves with other assets

	XLE	DIA	TLT	XLF	SPY	QQQ
XLE	1.00	0.99	-0.98	0.98	0.98	0.96
DIA	0.99	1.00	-0.98	0.99	1.00	0.99
TLT	-0.98	-0.98	1.00	-0.99	-0.97	-0.96
XLF	0.98	0.99	-0.99	1.00	0.99	0.99
SPY	0.98	1.00	-0.97	0.99	1.00	1.00
QQQ	0.96	0.99	-0.96	0.99	1.00	1.00

Forecast Factors

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bullish · 72/100

24H drift+1.68%

7D drift+5.03%

30D drift+9.67%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bullish Setup · 69/100

RSI90.0 · Bullish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack2/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Risk-On Tentative · 64/100

1M outlook+9.67%

1Y outlook+13.39%

5Y outlook+22.61%

Frequently Asked Questions

Q What is the XLE forecast for tomorrow?

XLE is projected near $55.47 versus the latest reference around $54.53. That implies a modeled move of +1.68% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for XLE?

The weekly model points to $57.30, which maps to an expected drift of +5.03% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is $59.82 (+9.67%), while the 1-year target is $61.86 (+13.39%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near $66.88 with a modeled change of +22.61%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around $55.22, while nearest support is around $49.56. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly $54.19 to $55.37. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.