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US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

Updated: March 18, 2026 at 15:14 UTC

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▲ +0.62%TA Bearish · Focus Rates + macro

Forecast Summary

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Timeframe	Predicted Price	Past	Historical	Insight
Tomorrow	4.177% ▼ -1.20%	Yesterday	4.202% ▲ +0.62%	Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Week	4.113% ▼ -2.73%	Last Week	4.208% ▲ +0.48%	7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Month	4.056% ▼ -4.06%	Last Month	4.056% ▲ +4.24%	Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Year	4.062% ▼ -3.92%	Last Year	4.281% ▼ -1.24%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Years	4.040% ▼ -4.44%	5 Years Ago	1.732% ▲ +144.11%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Tomorrow4.177%▼ -1.20%

Yesterday4.202%▲ +0.62%

Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).

Week4.113%▼ -2.73%

Last Week4.208%▲ +0.48%

7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.

Month4.056%▼ -4.06%

Last Month4.056%▲ +4.24%

Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

Year4.062%▼ -3.92%

Last Year4.281%▼ -1.24%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5 Years4.040%▼ -4.44%

5 Years Ago1.732%▲ +144.11%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Risk notice: This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

Price Chart

HistoricalForecastBullishBearish

Technical Analysis

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Key Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
RSI 14	91.7	Bullish
MACD	-0.03	Neutral
SMA 50	4.164%	Above
SMA 200	3.895%	Above
EMA 20	3.740%	Above

Historical Data

Open4.202%

Start Date1985-01-01

Day Range4.195% – 4.236%

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range3.962% – 4.285%

24h Volumen/a

90D Range3.962% – 4.295%

Circulatingn/a

52W Range3.785% – 4.803%

Max Supplyn/a

Open	4.202%	Start Date	1985-01-01
Day Range	4.195% – 4.236%	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	3.962% – 4.285%	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	3.962% – 4.295%	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	3.785% – 4.803%	Max Supply	n/a

Support & Resistance Levels

4.330%R3 — major ceiling

4.300%R2 — swing resistance

4.269%R1 — near-term resistance

4.228%Current PriceUS10Y

4.143%S1 — near-term supportSupport

4.017%S2 — structure support

3.890%S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near 4.269%; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around 4.143%; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 1.01% daily realized volatility.

Price Milestones

Key levels & historical context

Recent4.228%Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High4.236%Local High+0.19%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low4.195%Local Low-0.78%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target4.056%Model 1M-4.07%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target4.062%Model 1Y-3.93%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario4.040%Model 5Y-4.45%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

Forecast Accuracy

How our model has performed

83%

Directional

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (1.01% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

Our algorithm is re-calibrated weekly using the latest price action, volatility regime, and indicator signals. Accuracy varies by timeframe — short-term momentum is more reliable than long-term projections.

Tomorrow

86%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

84%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

81%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

76%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±2.5%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

Investment Scenarios

If you invest $1,000 in US10Y today

Bullish Case

$1120.00

+12.00% from current

Target Price4.735%

ScenarioBreakout continuation

Probability32%

Base Case

$959.32

-4.07% from current

Target Price4.056%

ScenarioTrend-following baseline

Probability40%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

Target Price3.890%

ScenarioVolatility drawdown

Probability28%

Basis: Scenario engine blends live drift (-4.06% / 30D) and realized volatility (1.01% daily).

Correlation Matrix

30-day rolling · how US10Y moves with other assets

	US10Y	UK10Y	US30Y	DE10Y	US2Y
US10Y	1.00	-0.95	0.71	-0.62	-0.14
UK10Y	-0.95	1.00	-0.75	0.75	0.28
US30Y	0.71	-0.75	1.00	-0.79	-0.45
DE10Y	-0.62	0.75	-0.79	1.00	0.82
US2Y	-0.14	0.28	-0.45	0.82	1.00

Forecast Factors

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bearish · 39/100

24H drift-1.20%

7D drift-2.73%

30D drift-4.06%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bullish Setup · 77/100

RSI91.9 · Bullish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack3/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Risk-Off Caution · 42/100

1M outlook-4.06%

1Y outlook-3.92%

5Y outlook-4.44%

Frequently Asked Questions

Q What is the US10Y forecast for tomorrow?

US10Y is projected near 4.177% versus the latest reference around 4.228%. That implies a modeled move of -1.20% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for US10Y?

The weekly model points to 4.113%, which maps to an expected drift of -2.73% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is 4.056% (-4.06%), while the 1-year target is 4.062% (-3.92%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near 4.040% with a modeled change of -4.44%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around 4.269%, while nearest support is around 4.143%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly 4.195% to 4.236%. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.