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UK 10Y Gilt Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

Updated: February 25, 2026 at 16:00 UTC

From

▼ -0.35%TA Bullish · Focus Rates + macro

Forecast Summary

Timeframe	Predicted Price	Past	Historical	Insight
Tomorrow	4.443% ▼ -0.90%	Yesterday	4.499% ▼ -1.61%	Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.58%).
Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.58%).
Week	4.383% ▼ -2.24%	Last Week	4.600% ▲ +9.55%	7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Month	4.281% ▼ -4.51%	Last Month	4.366% ▲ +1254.19%	Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Year	4.893% ▲ +9.14%	Last Year	4.532% ▼ -57.21%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Years	5.302% ▲ +18.27%	5 Years Ago	10.590% ▲ +133.69%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Tomorrow4.443%▼ -0.90%

Yesterday4.499%▼ -1.61%

Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.58%).

Week4.383%▼ -2.24%

Last Week4.600%▲ +9.55%

7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.

Month4.281%▼ -4.51%

Last Month4.366%▲ +1254.19%

Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

Year4.893%▲ +9.14%

Last Year4.532%▼ -57.21%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5 Years5.302%▲ +18.27%

5 Years Ago10.590%▲ +133.69%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Price Chart

HistoricalForecastBullishBearish

Technical Analysis

Bearish

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Key Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
RSI 14	19.9	Bearish
MACD	-0.02	Neutral
SMA 50	4.448%	Above
SMA 200	5.131%	Below
EMA 20	5.451%	Below

Historical Data

Open4.499%

Start Date2021-02-25

Day Range4.371% – 4.612%

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range4.083% – 4.690%

24h Volumen/a

90D Range4.017% – 4.884%

Circulatingn/a

52W Range4.120% – 5.289%

Max Supplyn/a

Open	4.499%	Start Date	2021-02-25
Day Range	4.371% – 4.612%	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	4.083% – 4.690%	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	4.017% – 4.884%	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	4.120% – 5.289%	Max Supply	n/a

Support & Resistance Levels

4.898%R3 — major ceiling

4.773%R2 — swing resistance

4.649%R1 — near-term resistance

4.483%Current PriceUK10Y

4.317%S1 — near-term supportSupport

4.193%S2 — structure support

4.068%S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near 4.649%; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around 4.317%; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 3.86% daily realized volatility.

Price Milestones

Key levels & historical context

Recent4.483%Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High4.612%Local High+2.87%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low4.371%Local Low-2.51%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target4.281%Model 1M-4.51%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target4.893%Model 1Y+9.15%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario5.302%Model 5Y+18.27%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

Forecast Accuracy

How our model has performed

80%

Directional

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (3.86% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

Our algorithm is re-calibrated weekly using the latest price action, volatility regime, and indicator signals. Accuracy varies by timeframe — short-term momentum is more reliable than long-term projections.

Tomorrow

83%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

81%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

78%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

73%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±6.4%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

Investment Scenarios

If you invest $1,000 in UK10Y today

Bullish Case

$1182.69

+18.27% from current

Target Price5.302%

ScenarioBreakout continuation

Probability32%

Base Case

$954.94

-4.51% from current

Target Price4.281%

ScenarioTrend-following baseline

Probability40%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

Target Price4.124%

ScenarioVolatility drawdown

Probability28%

Basis: Scenario engine blends live drift (-4.51% / 30D) and realized volatility (3.86% daily).

Correlation Matrix

30-day rolling · how UK10Y moves with other assets

	UK10Y	DE10Y	US30Y	US10Y	US2Y
UK10Y	1.00	0.75	-0.70	-0.39	0.31
DE10Y	0.75	1.00	-0.77	0.17	0.84
US30Y	-0.70	-0.77	1.00	0.33	-0.43
US10Y	-0.39	0.17	0.33	1.00	0.65
US2Y	0.31	0.84	-0.43	0.65	1.00

Forecast Factors

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bearish · 40/100

24H drift-0.90%

7D drift-2.24%

30D drift-4.51%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bearish Setup · 31/100

RSI20.0 · Bearish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack1/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Balanced Risk · 53/100

1M outlook-4.51%

1Y outlook+9.14%

5Y outlook+18.27%

Frequently Asked Questions

Q What is the UK10Y forecast for tomorrow?

UK10Y is projected near 4.443% versus the latest reference around 4.483%. That implies a modeled move of -0.90% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for UK10Y?

The weekly model points to 4.383%, which maps to an expected drift of -2.24% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is 4.281% (-4.51%), while the 1-year target is 4.893% (+9.14%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near 5.302% with a modeled change of +18.27%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around 4.649%, while nearest support is around 4.317%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly 4.371% to 4.612%. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.