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US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

Updated: February 16 · 2026 at 21:36 UTC
▼ -2.15%Technical analysis Bearish · Focus area Rates + macro

Forecast Summary

TimeframePredicted PricePastHistoricalInsight
Tomorrow4.068% ▼ -0.54%Yesterday4.180% ▲ +0.48%Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Week4.035% ▼ -1.34%Last Week4.280% ▲ +0.94%7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Month4.019% ▼ -1.73%Last Month4.140% • 0.00%Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Year4.056% ▼ -0.82%Last Year4.490% ▲ +4.91%Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Years4.038% ▼ -1.26%5 Years Ago4.280% ▼ -4.68%5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
Tomorrow4.068%▼ -0.54%
Yesterday4.180%▲ +0.48%
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Week4.035%▼ -1.34%
Last Week4.280%▲ +0.94%
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Month4.019%▼ -1.73%
Last Month4.140%• 0.00%
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Year4.056%▼ -0.82%
Last Year4.490%▲ +4.91%
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Years4.038%▼ -1.26%
5 Years Ago4.280%▼ -4.68%
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
Risk notice:This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

Price Chart

HistoricalForecastBullishBearish
4.220%4.154%4.088%4.022%3.956%1W AgoNow7D F

Technical Analysis

SellNeutralBuy
Bearish
1
Bullish
0
Neutral
4
Bearish

Key Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
RSI 1431.6 Bearish
MACD0.07 Bullish
SMA 504.185% Below
SMA 2004.233% Below
EMA 204.182% Below

Historical Data

Open4.180%
Start Date
Day Range4.090% – 4.300%
Market Cap
Monthly Range4.090% – 4.300%
24h Volume
90D Range3.970% – 4.300%
Circulating
52W Range3.970% – 4.620%
Max Supply
Open4.180%Start Date
Day Range4.090% – 4.300%Market Cap
Monthly Range4.090% – 4.300%24h Volume
90D Range3.970% – 4.300%Circulating
52W Range3.970% – 4.620%Max Supply

Support & Resistance Levels

4.250%R3 — upper range
4.189%R2 — swing high
4.143%R1 — near-term cap
4.090%Current PriceUS10Y
4.037%S1 — short-term supportSupport
3.991%S2 — trend support
3.930%S3 — range low
↑
Nearest resistance is 4.143%; break above may accelerate momentum.
↓
Nearest support sits near 4.037%; watch reaction around this zone.
⚖
Current structure is range-bound with daily volatility around 0.85%.

Price Milestones

Key levels & historical context
Recent4.090%Current
Current reference level.
90D High4.300%Range High
Highest close in recent lookback window.
90D Low3.970%Range Low
Lowest close in recent lookback window.

Forecast Accuracy

How our model has performed
74%
Directional
Forecast Accuracy
Model confidence is supported by stable volatility and coherent trend signals.
📊
Our algorithm is re-calibrated weekly using the latest price action, volatility regime, and indicator signals. Accuracy varies by timeframe — short-term momentum is more reliable than long-term projections.
Tomorrow
78%
Direction hit rate
7 Days
75%
Direction hit rate
30 Days
72%
Direction hit rate
1 Year
67%
Direction hit rate
Avg. Price Error (30D)
±14%
Mean absolute deviation
Last Correct Call
Recent
Directional call ✓

Investment Scenarios

If you invest $1,000 in US10Y today
Bullish Case
$1,170.29
+17.03% from current
Target Price4.786%
ScenarioBreakout continuation
Probability25%
Base Case
$1,040.00
+4.00% from current
Target Price4.254%
ScenarioTrend-following baseline
Probability50%
Bearish Case
$880.00
-12.00% from current
Target Price3.599%
ScenarioVolatility drawdown
Probability25%
Basis: Scenario engine blends trend drift (-0.04% / 30D) and volatility regime (0.85% daily).

Correlation Matrix

30-day rolling · how US10Y moves with other assets
US10Y
US10Y1.00

Forecast Factors

Market Structure
Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.
Momentum Balanced · 45/100
24H drift-0.54%
7D drift-1.34%
30D drift-1.73%
Technical Signals
Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.
Bearish Setup · 37/100
RSI31.7 · Bearish
MACD0.08 · Bullish
MA stack0/3 bullish
Macro Context
Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.
Balanced Risk · 47/100
1M outlook-1.73%
1Y outlook-0.82%
5Y outlook-1.26%

Frequently Asked Questions

Q What is the US 10Y Treasury Yield forecast for tomorrow?
US 10Y Treasury Yield is projected near 4.068% versus the latest reference around 4.090%. That implies a modeled move of -0.54% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.
Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for US 10Y Treasury Yield?
The weekly model points to 4.035%, which maps to an expected drift of -1.34% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.
Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?
The 1-month target is 4.019% (-1.73%), while the 1-year target is 4.056% (-0.82%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.
Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?
The long-horizon scenario sits near 4.038% with a modeled change of -1.26%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.
Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?
Nearest resistance is around 4.143%, while nearest support is around 4.037%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.
Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?
The latest observed session range is roughly n/a to n/a. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.

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