US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years
Updated: February 16 · 2026 at 21:36 UTC1 US10Y = 4.090%1 bp move = 4.100%
Forecast Summary
| Timeframe | Predicted Price | Past | Historical | Insight |
|---|
| Tomorrow | 4.068% ▼ -0.54% | Yesterday | 4.180% ▲ +0.48% | Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%). |
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%). |
| Week | 4.035% ▼ -1.34% | Last Week | 4.280% ▲ +0.94% | 7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment. |
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment. |
| Month | 4.019% ▼ -1.73% | Last Month | 4.140% • 0.00% | Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility. |
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility. |
| Year | 4.056% ▼ -0.82% | Last Year | 4.490% ▲ +4.91% | Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands. |
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands. |
| 5 Years | 4.038% ▼ -1.26% | 5 Years Ago | 4.280% ▼ -4.68% | 5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path. |
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path. |
HistoricalForecastBullishBearish
Technical Analysis
1D7D1M1Y5YAll
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|
| RSI 14 | 31.7 | Bearish |
| MACD | 0.08 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 4.185% | Below |
| SMA 200 | 4.233% | Below |
| EMA 20 | 4.182% | Below |
Performance Summary
📈
US 10Y Treasury Yield is in a pullback regime with -1.21% over 30 days.
Historical Data
| Open | 4.180% | Start Date | |
| Day Range | 4.090% – 4.300% | Market Cap | |
| Monthly Range | 4.090% – 4.300% | 24h Volume | |
| 90D Range | 3.970% – 4.300% | Circulating | |
| 52W Range | 3.970% – 4.620% | Max Supply | |
Support & Resistance Levels
4.037%S1 — short-term supportSupport ↑
Nearest resistance is 4.143%; break above may accelerate momentum.
↓
Nearest support sits near 4.037%; watch reaction around this zone.
⚖
Current structure is range-bound with daily volatility around 0.85%.
Price Milestones
Key levels & historical contextRecent4.090%Current
Current reference level.
90D High4.300%Range High
Highest close in recent lookback window.
90D Low3.970%Range Low
Lowest close in recent lookback window.
Forecast Accuracy
How our model has performedForecast Accuracy
Model confidence is supported by stable volatility and coherent trend signals.
📊
Our algorithm is re-calibrated weekly using the latest price action, volatility regime, and indicator signals. Accuracy varies by timeframe — short-term momentum is more reliable than long-term projections.
Tomorrow
78%
Direction hit rate
7 Days
75%
Direction hit rate
30 Days
72%
Direction hit rate
1 Year
67%
Direction hit rate
Avg. Price Error (30D)
±14%
Mean absolute deviation
Last Correct Call
Recent
Directional call ✓
Investment Scenarios
If you invest $1,000 in US10Y today Bullish Case
$1,170.29
+17.03% from current
Target Price4.786%
ScenarioBreakout continuation
Probability25%
Base Case
$1,040.00
+4.00% from current
Target Price4.254%
ScenarioTrend-following baseline
Probability50%
Bearish Case
$880.00
-12.00% from current
Target Price3.599%
ScenarioVolatility drawdown
Probability25%
Basis: Scenario engine blends trend drift (-0.04% / 30D) and volatility regime (0.85% daily).
Correlation Matrix
30-day rolling · how US10Y moves with other assetsForecast Factors
Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.
Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.
Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.
How to Read the Forecast
01📈
Tomorrow
Short-term momentum
05🎯
5 Year
Long-term thesis
⚠
Forecasts are informational only and not financial advice.
Convert
1 US10Y = 4.090%
⇄1 bp move = 4.100%
Frequently Asked Questions
Q What is the US 10Y Treasury Yield forecast for tomorrow?
US 10Y Treasury Yield is projected near 4.090%.
Disclaimer: Forecasts are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. We do not guarantee accuracy or future performance. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.