Palladium Forecast: 1,346 Rebounds From the 1,272 Low
- Palladium trades at 1,346, up 1.24% on the day and back above the moving-average cluster it lost last week.
- US preliminary anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Russian palladium reached a combined margin of roughly 242% in February, in a market where Russia supplies about 40% of global output.
- The 1,323 to 1,328 moving-average band is the level that decides the next move; it has flipped between support and resistance three times this month.
Fundamental Analysis: Palladium
Trade policy has become the dominant variable in this market. The US Department of Commerce issued preliminary affirmative determinations in February 2026 carrying a combined anti-dumping and countervailing duty margin of roughly 242% on unworked Russian palladium, with a separate preliminary anti-dumping margin far higher still. Given that Russia accounts for approximately 40% of global palladium supply, concentrated in a single Arctic producer, a measure of that size does not merely redirect trade — it re-prices the metal for North American consumers.
The counterweight is structural demand erosion. Palladium's principal use is in petrol autocatalysts, a market shrinking as electrification advances and as substitution toward platinum continues wherever the price ratio makes it economic. That is why the metal spent years de-rating despite recurring supply concerns, and it is why rallies driven by trade measures have tended to fade rather than extend.
The balance is a market where a genuine supply shock meets a genuinely declining end-use. Neither force resolves the other, so the metal trades in wide swings around a flat mean rather than trending. The practical implication is that levels matter more here than direction, and that positioning unwinds — like the one that produced this month's low — tend to be the sharpest moves on the chart.
Technical Analysis: Palladium
The month has been a round trip. Price peaked near 1,400 around 11 August, slid through the whole moving-average complex to a low near 1,272 on 19 August, and has since recovered to 1,353. The averages are now unusually tightly bunched at 1,327.85, 1,325.32 and 1,323.06, with the slowest at 1,312.77 — a compression that says the market has no directional conviction at these levels.
Resistance is the 1,353.34 session high, then 1,380, with the 1,400 area marking the month's peak. Support is the 1,323 to 1,328 average band immediately beneath price, then 1,312.77, with the 1,272 low as the structural floor. A four-hour close back below 1,312.77 would put the rebound in doubt and re-expose that low.
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