Brent Crude Oil Forecast: UKOIL Firms at $91.45 on a 3Q Deficit
- Brent trades at $91.45, up 0.40% on the day and back near the top of its August range.
- The IEA's August report places the third quarter in a 1.8 mb/d deficit, with roughly 8 mb/d of Gulf output still shut in.
- The $89.20 average is the level that has defined every pullback since the recovery began.
Fundamental Analysis: Brent Crude Oil
The August Oil Market Report from the IEA reads unlike anything published earlier in the year. It puts the third quarter in a deficit of 1.8 mb/d, with global supply falling 4.3 mb/d across 2026 to 102 mb/d as losses in the Middle East and Russia overwhelm 1.4 mb/d of growth from the Americas. Disruption in the Gulf cut loadings from around 20 mb/d in early July to roughly 12 mb/d, and about 8 mb/d of production remains offline.
The offsetting force is demand, which the agency expects to contract by 1.6 mb/d over 2026. The contraction is easing, from 4.9 mb/d in the second quarter to 2.8 mb/d in the third, and returning to growth of 580 kb/d in the fourth, but a shrinking demand base is what has kept this from becoming a disorderly rally. OPEC+ output also rose from 33.0 mb/d in June to 34.53 mb/d in July, though it remains 6.02 mb/d below target.
The balance is a market that is genuinely short right now and expected to be long later. The agency sees surplus returning towards year end, and looks for supply to rebound 8.3 mb/d in 2027. That is why the curve is firm without being euphoric: the deficit is real, and it also has an expiry date.
Technical Analysis: Brent Crude Oil
The 4-hour chart is defined by the late-July spike to roughly $101 and the collapse that followed, which bottomed near $78.50 on 6 August. The recovery since has retraced almost the entire move in a series of higher lows, and price at $91.45 now sits just under the $92.20 August high with the moving averages correctly stacked beneath it at $89.20, $87.64, $86.62 and $85.98.
Resistance is $92.20 first, then $95.00 inside the July spike. Support is the 20-period average at $89.20, which has caught each pullback of the recovery, then $87.64, then $82.50. A four-hour close below the 200-period average at $85.98 would undo the recovery structure and put the August low back in play.
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