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US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

Atualizado: March 12, 2026 at 18:16 UTC

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▲ +1.02%TA Grosseiro · Focus Taxas + macro

Resumo da Previsão

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Período	Preço Previsto	Passado	Histórico	Comentário
Amanhã	4.200% ▼ -1.20%	Ontem	4.208% ▲ +1.02%	Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Semana	4.132% ▼ -2.80%	Semana Passada	4.146% ▲ +2.53%	7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Mês	4.067% ▼ -4.33%	Mês Passado	4.147% ▲ +2.51%	Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Ano	4.065% ▼ -4.38%	Ano Passado	4.318% ▼ -1.55%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Anos	4.041% ▼ -4.94%	Há 5 Anos	1.635% ▲ +160.00%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Amanhã4.200%▼ -1.20%

Ontem4.208%▲ +1.02%

Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).

Semana4.132%▼ -2.80%

Semana Passada4.146%▲ +2.53%

7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.

Mês4.067%▼ -4.33%

Mês Passado4.147%▲ +2.51%

Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

Ano4.065%▼ -4.38%

Ano Passado4.318%▼ -1.55%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5 Anos4.041%▼ -4.94%

Há 5 Anos1.635%▲ +160.00%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Risk notice: This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

Gráfico de Preço

HistóricoPrevisãoAltistaBaixista

Análise Técnica

Bullish

Altista

Neutro

Baixista

Indicadores Chave

Indicador	Valor	Sinal
RSI 14	92.7	Bullish
MACD	-0.03	Neutral
SMA 50	4.167%	Above
SMA 200	3.900%	Above
EMA 20	3.737%	Above

Dados Históricos

Open4.208%

Start Date1985-01-01

Day Range4.216% – 4.255%

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range3.962% – 4.275%

24h Volumen/a

90D Range3.962% – 4.295%

Circulatingn/a

52W Range3.743% – 4.803%

Max Supplyn/a

Open	4.208%	Start Date	1985-01-01
Day Range	4.216% – 4.255%	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	3.962% – 4.275%	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	3.962% – 4.295%	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	3.743% – 4.803%	Max Supply	n/a

Níveis de Suporte e Resistência

4.348%R3 — major ceiling

4.319%R2 — swing resistance

4.290%R1 — near-term resistance

4.251%Preço AtualUS10Y

4.166%S1 — near-term supportSupport

4.038%S2 — structure support

3.911%S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near 4.290%; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around 4.166%; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 0.95% daily realized volatility.

Marcos de Preço

Níveis-chave e contexto histórico

Recent4.251%Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High4.255%Local High+0.09%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low4.216%Local Low-0.82%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target4.067%Model 1M-4.33%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target4.065%Model 1Y-4.38%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario4.041%Model 5Y-4.94%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

Precisão da Previsão

Como nosso modelo se saiu

83%

Direcional

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (0.95% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

Nosso algoritmo é recalibrado semanalmente usando a última ação do preço, o regime de volatilidade e sinais de indicadores. A precisão varia por período — o impulso de curto prazo é mais confiável que as projeções de longo prazo.

Tomorrow

86%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

84%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

81%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

76%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±2.5%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

Cenários de Investimento

Se você investir $1,000 em US10Y hoje

Bullish Case

$1120.00

+12.00% from current

Preço Alvo4.761%

CenárioBreakout continuation

Probabilidade32%

Base Case

$956.72

-4.33% from current

Preço Alvo4.067%

CenárioTrend-following baseline

Probabilidade40%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

Preço Alvo3.911%

CenárioVolatility drawdown

Probabilidade28%

Base: Scenario engine blends live drift (-4.33% / 30D) and realized volatility (0.95% daily).

Matriz de Correlação

30 dias · como US10Y se move com outros ativos

	US10Y	UK10Y	US30Y	DE10Y	US2Y
US10Y	1.00	-0.95	0.71	-0.63	-0.16
UK10Y	-0.95	1.00	-0.75	0.75	0.28
US30Y	0.71	-0.75	1.00	-0.79	-0.45
DE10Y	-0.63	0.75	-0.79	1.00	0.82
US2Y	-0.16	0.28	-0.45	0.82	1.00

Fatores da Previsão

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bearish · 38/100

24H drift-1.20%

7D drift-2.80%

30D drift-4.33%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bullish Setup · 77/100

RSI92.9 · Bullish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack3/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Risk-Off Caution · 42/100

1M outlook-4.33%

1Y outlook-4.38%

5Y outlook-4.94%

Perguntas Frequentes

Q What is the US10Y forecast for tomorrow?

US10Y is projected near 4.200% versus the latest reference around 4.251%. That implies a modeled move of -1.20% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for US10Y?

The weekly model points to 4.132%, which maps to an expected drift of -2.80% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is 4.067% (-4.33%), while the 1-year target is 4.065% (-4.38%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near 4.041% with a modeled change of -4.94%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around 4.290%, while nearest support is around 4.166%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly 4.216% to 4.255%. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.