WTI Crude Oil Forecast: 84.54 as Global Stocks Draw Down

• WTI Crude Oil trades at 84.54, up 0.13% on the day and ten dollars above the 74.50 low made on 5 August.
• Observed global oil stocks fell 69 million barrels in July and 410 million barrels since February, an average draw of 2.7 mb/d.
• The 85.10 session high is the ceiling; the 83.59 moving average is the first support the recovery has to hold.

Fundamental Analysis: WTI Crude Oil

The inventory picture is doing the work. The International Energy Agency's August report put observed oil stocks down 69 million barrels in July alone, taking cumulative draws since February to 410 million barrels — an average depletion of 2.7 mb/d. That is a market consuming its buffer, and it is happening because roughly 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output remains shut in. OPEC+ produced 34.53 mb/d in July, still some 6 mb/d short of what its own targets imply.

The demand side cuts the other way, and hard. The agency expects global oil demand to fall by 1.6 mb/d across 2026, a substantial downward revision, as high prices ration consumption. The contraction does ease as the year runs on, with growth of 580 kb/d expected in the fourth quarter and 2.4 mb/d penciled in for 2027, but for now the world is using less oil, not more.

What resolves the two is timing. Supply is constrained now and demand weakness is a full-year average, so the near-term balance stays tight while the medium-term balance loosens. That combination produces exactly what July delivered: a benchmark that traded a range of almost $40 a barrel in a single month, with headlines rather than fundamentals setting the daily direction.

Technical Analysis: WTI Crude Oil

The structure began with a sharp slide from roughly 91 in the final week of July down to 74.50 on 5 August, a move that broke every moving average at once. The recovery since has been steadier than the fall, reclaiming the averages in sequence and reaching 85.10 in the latest session before closing the four-hour bar at 84.58. The averages now sit beneath price and rising at 83.59, 82.41, 81.64 and 81.21.

Resistance is the 85.10 high, then the 86.00 shelf and the 88.00 area where the July decline accelerated. Support is 83.59 first, then the 82.41 and 81.64 pair. A four-hour close below 81.21 would put price back under the whole average stack and invalidate the recovery, exposing the 78.00 region.

Market Forecast Hub

Trading tools

Crypto Forecast Hub

Broker reviews