Palladium Price Forecast: XPD/USD Defends $1,320 on Tariff Risk
- Palladium trades at $1,319.61, down 0.38% on the day and sitting on its 200-period average.
- Russia supplies roughly 40% of the global market, and US authorities set a preliminary anti-dumping margin near 828% on unworked Russian metal.
- The $1,311.92 long-term average is the level holding the entire August advance together.
Fundamental Analysis: Palladium
The trade file is now the dominant input. The US Department of Commerce set a preliminary anti-dumping margin of approximately 828% on unworked Russian palladium imports, following petitions from a domestic producer and a labour union. Russia accounts for roughly 40% of global supply, so a duty at that level does not adjust trade flows at the margin, it redirects them wholesale and creates two separately priced regional markets.
Against that, the demand base is structurally shrinking. Palladium's principal use is in petrol autocatalysts, and every percentage point of electric vehicle share removes loadings permanently rather than cyclically. Substitution towards platinum in catalyst formulations, which accelerated when palladium traded at a large premium, has not reversed now that the premium has gone the other way.
So this is a market being repriced by supply politics while its underlying demand erodes. That combination tends to produce sharp, news-driven rallies inside a longer structural decline, which is precisely what the chart has shown this month. It argues for treating strength as event-driven rather than as the start of a durable trend.
Technical Analysis: Palladium
The 4-hour chart shows a base between roughly $1,270 and $1,290 through late July, broken to the upside on 4 and 5 August in a move that reached $1,400 by 7 August. A lower high at $1,392 followed on 12 August, and 13 August brought a sharp single-session drop to $1,296. The rebound from there has been partial, carrying to $1,335 before settling at $1,319.61.
The averages are now compressed and disordered, at $1,336.63, $1,330.30, $1,325.30 and $1,311.92, with price between the last two. Resistance is $1,330.30, then $1,336.63, then the $1,400 August high. Support is the 200-period average at $1,311.92, then the $1,296 reaction low, then $1,280. A four-hour close below $1,296 would invalidate the August breakout entirely.
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