XRP Forecast: 1.3683 Slips Under a 1.3831 Moving-Average Cap
- XRP trades at 1.3683, up 0.77% on the day but three lower highs into a 1.6963 spike made on 22 August.
- Spot XRP funds took $39.7m last week against $2.25m the week before, lifting cumulative inflows past $1.5bn.
- The 1.3831 average is the level that decides the next move; while price is beneath it the fade stays intact.
Fundamental Analysis: XRP
The demand data has improved sharply. Spot XRP exchange-traded products drew $39.7m of net inflows last week, a step change from $2.25m the week before, and cumulative inflows have now passed $1.5bn with net assets above $1.3bn. Alongside that, the RLUSD stablecoin crossed $2.07bn in market capitalisation for the first time since its late-2024 launch, with $988m of that supply issued on the XRP Ledger itself and 24-hour turnover above $753m.
The awkward fact is that the price has not followed. XRP touched 1.6963 on 22 August, made a 2026 low of 0.9905 as recently as 11 August, and has since spent a week grinding lower despite the flow improving. That divergence usually means the August rally was driven by leverage rather than allocation, and that the fund inflows, real as they are, remain small relative to the positioning being unwound.
The macro layer compounds it. Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole warning on 28 August pushed September Fed hike pricing higher, which weighs hardest on the assets furthest out the risk curve. For XRP the constructive case now rests on ledger economics rather than momentum: if stablecoin issuance keeps building on the network and fund flows keep compounding, the fundamental base widens even while price consolidates. That is a slower story than August's, and the chart is reflecting it.
Technical Analysis: XRP
The 4-hour chart begins with a long base near 1.00 that broke on 19 August, producing a vertical run to the 1.6963 spike on 22 August. Every subsequent rally has failed lower: roughly 1.52 on 25 August, 1.45 on 28 August, and now 1.3683. The averages have rolled over with price and sit at 1.3831 and 1.3907 directly overhead, with the slower pair at 1.3154 and 1.2311 below.
Resistance is 1.3831 first, then 1.3907, with the 1.45 lower high the level that would break the sequence. Support is 1.3154, then 1.2311, and beneath that the 1.1580 pivot that marked the base of the August breakout. A four-hour close above 1.3907 invalidates the corrective read and would put 1.45 back within reach.
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