WTI Crude Oil Forecast: 83.25 Sits on a Cluster of Averages

• 83.25 a barrel, down 0.34% on the session, having rebounded from 79.62 two days ago.
• The third-quarter balance has swung to a deficit of 1.8 million barrels a day, more than double the previous estimate.
• 82.85 decides the next move: three averages have converged there and price is sitting on them.

Fundamental Analysis: WTI Crude Oil

The supply side of this market has been rewritten this year. Global supply is now expected to fall 4.3 million barrels a day in 2026 to around 102 million, and July's output from the wider producer group reached 34.53 million barrels a day — still 6.02 million short of its own targets. Inventories have drawn 410 million barrels since the end of February, including 69 million in July alone, and the third-quarter balance has been revised to a 1.8 million barrel a day deficit from 800,000 previously. Crude is up roughly 30% on the year on that arithmetic.

The counterweight is that demand is contracting alongside it. Consumption is forecast to fall 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, revised down again by 510,000, with the sharpest contractions in the second and third quarters. A deficit built on supply losses rather than demand strength is a different animal: it supports price but does not sustain it, because the same disruptions that created it can reverse. Benchmark crude traded in a range of almost $40 during July, which is what that instability looks like.

The immediate swing factor is diplomatic. Iran and Oman have reached a revenue-sharing arrangement covering the Strait of Hormuz, though Tehran has been clear that reopening the waterway needs a broader settlement, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and export terminals continue to remove barrels at the other end of the market. Neither is resolved, and price is behaving accordingly.

Technical Analysis: WTI Crude Oil

The August advance topped at 87.69 on 20 August and gave way to a sharp five-session decline that bottomed at 79.62 on 26 August, wiping out roughly two weeks of gains. The rebound since has been quick and has returned price to the middle of the chart's moving averages, which have bunched: 83.26 immediately overhead, then 82.89, 82.85 and 82.15 beneath.

Resistance is 83.26, then the 85 area where the decline accelerated, then 87.69. Support is the 82.89-82.85 pair, then 82.15, then the 80.00 handle. A four-hour close below 79.62 would resume the decline and invalidate the rebound read.

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