Tesla Stock Forecast: TSLA Drops 3.83% to 348.95
- Tesla trades at 348.95, down 3.83% on the day and back beneath the 358.28 average it reclaimed only days ago.
- Record second-quarter revenue of $28.24 billion arrived with an operating margin of just 1.4%.
- The 344.19 average pair is the level that decides whether the August base survives.
Fundamental Analysis: Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla's second quarter, reported on 22 July, was a study in the gap between volume and profit. Revenue set a record at $28.24 billion, up 26% year on year, deliveries rose 25% to 480,126 vehicles, and energy storage deployments climbed 41% to 13.5 GWh. On any measure of scale, the business grew.
Profitability moved the other way, and sharply. Operating margin fell to 1.4% from 4.1%, non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.33 against $0.40 a year earlier, and free cash flow turned negative at minus $1.09 billion, the first cash-burning quarter since early 2024. Two forces drove it: regulatory credit revenue collapsed to $146 million from $439 million as federal electric-vehicle credits expired and fuel-economy penalties were eliminated, and operating expenses rose 47% on artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomy spending.
That combination is why the recovery has struggled to hold. The growth case remains intact and the spending is forward-looking, but a business earning a 1.4% operating margin gives buyers very little to underwrite when momentum stalls, and today's decline came without any fresh news to explain it.
Technical Analysis: Tesla (TSLA)
The 4-hour chart runs from a July high near 430.70 through the post-earnings flush that bottomed at 322.80, then a month of base-building and a rally that reached 366.90 before today's reversal. Price at 348.95 now sits between the 358.28 average above and the 344.74 and 344.19 averages converging just below.
Resistance is 358.28, then the 366.90 rally high. Support is the 344.19 pair, then 322.80 at the base of the August range. A sustained break below 322.80 would invalidate the entire recovery and reopen the July downtrend.
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