Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Pushes $65.70 After a 15% August Run
- Silver trades near $65.72, up about 1.6%, after advancing roughly 15% from the late-July base near $57.
- The metal is being bid on two independent channels at once: industrial demand and monetary hedging.
- The $64.97 average is first support, and the $66.70 swing high is the level that decides the next leg.
Fundamental Analysis: Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver's advantage in this cycle is that it does not depend on a single narrative. Roughly half of annual demand is industrial, concentrated in photovoltaics, electronics and increasingly in grid infrastructure, and that component is structural rather than cyclical. The other half behaves like gold, responding to inflation expectations and to reserve diversification.
Both channels are currently pulling the same way. Energy-driven inflation risk from Gulf supply disruption has lifted the entire precious metals complex, and gold's 8% August advance has dragged silver with it at a higher beta. Meanwhile, above-ground inventories in the major vaulting centres have been drawn down over successive years of deficit, which reduces the buffer available to absorb demand surges.
The constraint is the same one facing gold: the Federal Reserve has held at 3.50%-3.75% for five meetings with three officials favouring a hike, so real yields remain a competing store of value. Silver also carries higher drawdown risk than gold because its industrial half is exposed to a global economy where oil demand is forecast to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year. That is why silver leads on the way up and on the way down.
Technical Analysis: Silver (XAG/USD)
The 4-hour chart shows a base near $57 through late July, a breakout on 4-5 August, and a strong trending advance into a $66.70 high on 11-12 August. The pullback that followed was shallow, holding above $64, and price has since recovered to $65.72 with the higher-low structure intact.
The averages remain well ordered at roughly $64.97, $63.78, $62.25 and $62.01. Resistance is $66.00, then the $66.70 swing high and the $67.00 round number above it. Support is $64.97 first, then $63.78, with $62.25 as the deeper shelf. A 4-hour close below $63.78 would signal the August impulse has run its course.
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