Silver Forecast: XAG/USD at 63.98 Loses the 64.63 Line

• Silver trades at 63.98 an ounce, down 0.13% on the day and more than seven dollars below the 71.10 high printed on 28 August.
• The same real-yield repricing driving gold lower is hitting silver harder, as it usually does, given the metal's thinner liquidity.
• 64.63 is the level that decides the next move: the slowest average, lost this week and now acting as the ceiling.

Fundamental Analysis: Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver's monetary leg trades off the same variable as gold, and that variable has moved against it. Real yields have been the dominant driver of the precious complex through 2026, with each basis point of increase in the ten-year real yield worth roughly $20 an ounce on gold and a proportionally larger move in silver. Western precious-metal funds have recorded sustained net redemptions as capital rotated into equities, and silver's smaller float means those flows land with more force.

The counterweight is that silver is not purely a monetary asset. Roughly half of demand is industrial, and the central-bank bid that supports gold has no direct analogue here. That makes the metal's behaviour a hybrid: it sells off harder than gold in a real-yield shock, but it also carries an option on industrial demand that gold does not. With the Fed holding at 3.50%-3.75% and three officials having dissented in favour of a hike, neither leg is currently supportive.

The balance explains the shape of the last week. Silver did not decline gently in line with gold; it gapped down twice and gave back a month of gains in five sessions. That is what happens when the monetary bid withdraws from a market whose depth depends on it. The 16 September FOMC projections are the next scheduled event capable of changing the real-yield path in either direction.

Technical Analysis: Silver (XAG/USD)

The 4-hour chart shows a grinding advance through the second half of August that topped at 71.10 on 28 August, followed by two sharp downside sessions that cut through the full moving-average stack. Price at 63.98 now sits beneath all four, which run from 64.63 up to 66.64, and beneath the 1 September low near 62.90 lies open space with no recent structure.

Resistance is 64.63, the slowest average and the line lost this week, then 65.78 and 65.92 where two averages sit less than fifteen cents apart, with 66.64 above that. Support is the 62.90 low from 1 September, then the round 62.00 handle. A close back above 65.78 would invalidate the breakdown read and suggest the drop was a liquidation flush rather than a trend change.

Market Forecast Hub

Crypto Forecast Hub

Trading tools

Broker reviews