Silver Forecast: 67.04 Rebounds From a 66.15 Reversal Low

• Silver trades at 67.04, up 1.02% on the day after Friday's spike to 71.00 was rejected and sold down to 66.15.
• The metal is still up around 17% on the month and has more than tripled over the past year on a persistent supply shortfall.
• The 66.15 average is the level that decides the next move; hold it and the 68.04 band becomes the target.

Fundamental Analysis: Silver

Silver's advance rests on a genuine physical imbalance rather than sentiment alone. The Silver Institute's most recent balance put the market in a fifth consecutive structural deficit of roughly 95 million ounces, with industrial demand near 665 million ounces and mine supply flat at about 813 million ounces. Solar, electronics and medical applications consume the metal irreversibly, and mine output has shown no meaningful response to price, which is why deficits have compounded rather than corrected.

The monetary leg amplifies it. The same energy-driven inflation shock lifting gold has pulled silver along with it, and the metal's smaller, less liquid market means those flows move price far more violently. That cuts both ways: Friday's spike to 71.00 and the immediate five-dollar reversal after Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks is exactly the behaviour a thin market produces when leveraged positioning is forced to unwind.

The distinction worth holding on to is that the industrial deficit is a multi-year condition while the rate repricing is a multi-week one. A September Fed hike would compress silver harder than gold in the short term, because leverage is more concentrated here. It would not change the fact that the market consumes more metal than it mines. That is why pullbacks in this cycle have been sharp but shallow relative to the trend.

Technical Analysis: Silver

The 4-hour chart traces the advance from 59.50 on 5 August through the 63-65 band mid-month, a dip to 62.50 on 19 August, and then the breakout to 70.00 on 21 August. The market consolidated between 68 and 70 for a week before Friday's spike to 71.00 was reversed in a single wide bar down to 66.15. Price has since recovered to 67.04, sitting between the average at 66.15 below and the pair at 67.65 and 68.04 above.

Resistance is 67.65, then 68.04, with the 70.00 shelf the level that would confirm the reversal has been absorbed. Support is the 66.15 average, which is also Friday's flush low and therefore the level bulls need to defend, then the 65.00 handle, with 64.57 beneath. A four-hour close under 64.57 invalidates the uptrend read and opens the mid-August base.

Market Forecast Hub.

Crypto Forecast Hub

Trading tools

Broker reviews