Nvidia Stock Forecast: NVDA Gives Back 4.57% to $217.55

• NVDA trades at $217.55, having shed 4.57% on Friday and handed back the whole post-earnings spike to $229.50.
• Record results were not the problem: revenue doubled to $96.2bn and the October quarter is guided to roughly $108bn.
• The 214.97 average is the level that decides the next move, with the 211.61 average the deeper line beneath it.

Fundamental Analysis: NVDA Stock

The numbers were emphatic. Reporting on 26 August, the company posted July-quarter revenue of $96.2bn, up 106% year on year, with the data centre segment alone contributing $89bn. Adjusted earnings of $2.22 per share beat the $2.08 consensus, gross margin expanded to 75.0% from roughly 72.4% a year earlier, and management guided the current quarter to about $108bn, above expectations. On the fundamentals of the business there is very little to argue with.

What changed was the discount rate applied to it. Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote on 28 August described inflation as the Fed's paramount concern, citing PCE at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% annualised over six, and signalled a shift away from forward guidance towards discretion. With three July dissenters already preferring a hike and September pricing moving sharply, the long-duration growth complex sold off, and the most crowded position in that complex took the largest hit.

That tension defines the stock from here. The earnings power is being delivered on schedule and the guidance implies another sequential step up, so the equity risk is no longer about whether demand materialises. It is about the multiple investors will pay for growth in an environment where the policy rate might rise rather than fall. Until the September FOMC clarifies that, results will keep landing well and the share price will keep taking its direction from the bond market.

Technical Analysis: NVDA Stock

The 4-hour chart shows the recovery that began from the mid-August low near 196, carried price through the 208 pullback on 24 August and gapped it into earnings, peaking at 229.50. Friday's reversal was decisive, unwinding that entire move in a session and closing the stock back inside its moving averages, which sit at 217.42, 214.97, 211.61 and 206.44. Price at 217.55 is balanced exactly on the fastest of them.

Resistance is the 224 shelf that broke on the way down, then the 228-229.50 double top left by the earnings spike. Support is 214.97 first, then 211.61, with the 208 swing low the level that held the last pullback. A four-hour close beneath 208 invalidates the uptrend read and turns the earnings gap into a failed breakout.

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