NVDA Forecast: 224.41 Holds Above 219.17 Average
- 224.41 on NVDA, up 3.21% on the day, with price holding above all four 4-hour moving averages.
- Second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion doubled year on year and third-quarter guidance of $108 billion sits above where consensus had been.
- 219.17 is the first line that matters; the 228 high is what an extension has to clear.
Fundamental Analysis: NVIDIA (NVDA)
The reported numbers left little to argue with. Nvidia posted second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, with data centre revenue of $89.0 billion up 117%. Non-GAAP earnings came in at $2.22 per diluted share against $2.46 on a GAAP basis. Guidance for the current quarter is $108.0 billion plus or minus 2%, which implies the acceleration has not yet plateaued and gave the market a concrete figure to anchor to rather than a qualitative reassurance.
The counterweight is concentration rather than demand. A business where a single segment supplies more than nine tenths of revenue is exposed to the capital expenditure plans of a small number of customers, and those plans are being scrutinised more sceptically than they were a year ago. Meta's own quarter is the clearest example: the market marked the stock down for guiding capital spending toward $145 billion. Nvidia's revenue is the other side of exactly that ledger, so scepticism about hyperscaler returns eventually arrives at this share price.
For now the reported cash flows are winning the argument over the theoretical one. The market is treating the guidance as evidence that orders are booked rather than aspirational, and that is what keeps the stock bid into a period where the broader tape has been choppy. The question the next report has to answer is whether the customer base is broadening or simply spending more.
Technical Analysis: NVIDIA (NVDA)
The structure on the 4-hour chart is a textbook trend stack. The stock based between 190 and 196 through mid-July, dipped to roughly 189 in early August, and has climbed in steps since. The late-August earnings release marked on the chart produced the largest single volume bar on the screen and carried price to 228 on 1 September. The pullback since has been shallow, holding 219 and leaving the four averages rising in order at 219.17, 216.28, 212.67 and 207.29, all of them below spot.
Resistance is the 228 high, with 232 the next reference above it. Support is the 219.17 average, then 216.28, with 212.67 the level that would mark a deeper unwind. A 4-hour close below 216.28 would break the stepped sequence of higher lows that has held since the August bottom and invalidate the trend-following read.
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