Microsoft Stock Forecast: MSFT at 487.31 After 43% Azure Growth
- Microsoft trades at 487.31, up 0.84% and resting precisely on its 484.47 average after a 110-point run.
- Azure grew 43% in the June quarter and passed $100 billion of annual revenue for the first time.
- The 484.47 average is the level that decides whether this pullback stays orderly.
Fundamental Analysis: Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft's fiscal fourth quarter, ended 30 June, was an unusually clean beat. Revenue rose 18% to $90.0 billion, operating income rose 18% to $40.6 billion, and diluted earnings per share climbed 32% to $4.81. Microsoft Cloud contributed $59.3 billion, up 27%, and Intelligent Cloud grew 32% to $39.3 billion. Azure and cloud services revenue rose 43%, taking Azure past $100 billion for the fiscal year, while Microsoft 365 Copilot reached more than 30 million paid seats.
The counterweight is in the composition of the earnings line. A $3.2 billion gain on an equity investment flowed through the quarter, and discrete items contributed roughly $0.27 of EPS relative to prior guidance. Strip both out and the growth is still strong, but the 32% earnings figure overstates the operating improvement, and the capital expenditure required to keep Azure compounding at this rate continues to rise.
The market has largely accepted the trade. The stock gapped on the print and has held almost all of it, which is a vote of confidence in the cloud trajectory rather than in the headline earnings number.
Technical Analysis: Microsoft (MSFT)
The 4-hour chart shows a month of dead flat trade between 380 and 400 through July, then an earnings gap that launched price almost vertically to a high near 510. The pullback since has been shallow and controlled, and price at 487.31 is sitting on the 484.47 average with the slower averages far below at 465.05, 442.62 and 429.74.
Resistance is the 500 round number, then the 510 high. Support is 484.47, then 465.05 where the second average has caught up to the base of the gap. A close below 465.05 would fill too much of the earnings move and invalidate the continuation read.
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