GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Holds 1.3626 Before Jackson Hole
- Sterling is steady at 1.3626, down 0.04% on the day and sitting directly on its rising 4-hour average.
- Three MPC members voted to raise Bank Rate on 30 July, a hawkish split the market has yet to price out.
- The 1.3675 swing high is the level that decides whether this consolidation resolves higher.
Fundamental Analysis: GBP/USD
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July, but the 6-3 vote is the detail that matters for sterling: three members wanted an immediate rise to 4.00%, citing energy costs feeding through after the disruption to Middle East supply. UK CPI was 2.90% in July, still comfortably above target, and the Committee expects it to climb further into year-end.
Against that, the dollar side of the pair carries the larger event risk. The Federal Reserve has held at 3.50-3.75% for five consecutive meetings, with July CPI at 3.40%. Core PCE lands on Wednesday, and on Friday the Fed Chair delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote at the same hour the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its preliminary payrolls benchmark revision, restating US job growth through March 2026.
That pairing explains why cable has stalled rather than extended. Sterling has the firmer near-term policy story, but the dollar's direction rests on two releases arriving within days of each other, and positioning ahead of them has held the pair inside a narrow band rather than letting it trend.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD
The 4-hour chart shows an orderly advance that began near 1.3450 and has carried price roughly 225 pips higher without a meaningful retracement. The moving averages remain stacked in sequence at 1.3625, 1.3586, 1.3536 and 1.3480, and price is resting on the fastest of them, which is the shallowest kind of pause an uptrend produces.
Resistance sits at the 1.3675 swing high, with the 1.3700 round number above it. Support begins at 1.3586, then 1.3536. A sustained break below 1.3480 would put the whole August advance in question and invalidate the constructive read.
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