Brent Crude Oil Forecast: $89.80 After the $95.10 Rejection
- Brent trades at $89.80, down 0.62% and back beneath the averages it had held all month.
- The third-quarter global balance is estimated at a deficit of 1.8 million barrels a day.
- The 89.07 average is the level that decides whether this becomes a deeper unwind.
Fundamental Analysis: Brent Crude Oil
The August oil market report, published on 12 August, put the third-quarter global balance in a deficit of 1.8 million barrels a day. Observed inventories drew by a cumulative 410 million barrels between late February and the end of July, averaging 2.7 million barrels a day, and 2026 supply is now expected to fall by 4.3 million barrels a day to around 102 million as the disruption to Gulf shipping keeps barrels from reaching the market. OPEC+ produced 34.53 million barrels a day in July.
The counterweight is what the same report expects next. The market is projected to return to surplus toward year-end, and 2027 supply is forecast to rebound by 8.3 million barrels a day to 110.3 million while demand grows 2.4 million. In other words, the tightness driving this year's price is understood to be a transport and access problem rather than a resource problem, and transport problems can resolve quickly.
That is the tension in the price. Physical tightness is real now, the interim arrangement that had eased transits through the Gulf lapsed on 17 August without a successor, and yet the forward curve is being asked to price a market that the agency expects to be oversupplied within months.
Technical Analysis: Brent Crude Oil
The 4-hour chart shows a low at 78.55 on 6 August, then a steady two-week climb that reached 95.10 on 21 August. The break on 22 and 23 August was abrupt, cutting through the 91.58 and 90.69 averages in a single session, and price has since been chopping around 89 to 90 with the 89.07 average directly underfoot.
Resistance is 90.69, then 91.58 where the fastest average now sits above price. Support is 89.07, then 87.56. Reclaiming 91.58 on a closing basis would negate the breakdown and invalidate the bearish read; losing 87.56 would open the gap back toward the August base.
WTI reaches $89.43 as Brent clears $95 on renewed supply risk
WTI traded near $89.43 while Brent moved above $95 as Middle East shipping risk lifted crude for a fifth session. Key levels, catalysts and invalidation.
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