Antofagasta (ANTO): Copper Prices Lift Earnings as Chile Weather Cuts Production Outlook

• Antofagasta delivered stronger earnings: First-half EBITDA jumped 27% to $2.84 billion.
• Copper prices drove the improvement: Higher copper prices more than offset lower production.
• Production guidance was cut: Severe rainfall at Los Pelambres forced the company to reduce its 2026 output forecast.

ANTO Fundamental Analysis

Antofagasta has delivered a major earnings update on August 13, with the Chilean copper producer reporting substantially stronger financial results despite operational disruption at one of its key mines.

First-half EBITDA increased 27% to $2.84 billion, compared with $2.23 billion during the same period last year. Operating cash flow also increased 53% to $2.77 billion.

The biggest driver was the surge in commodity prices. Copper prices rose 36% over the period, while gold prices increased 46%, allowing the company to offset lower production and higher operating costs.

However, the production outlook has deteriorated.

Antofagasta reduced its 2026 copper-production forecast to 625,000–655,000 metric tons, compared with its previous target of 650,000–700,000 tons. The downgrade follows the temporary shutdown of its Los Pelambres operation after extreme rainfall hit Chile's Coquimbo region in July.

The company said the mine's core infrastructure was not materially damaged, but repairs are required for pipeline platforms and water-management systems.

There is a positive element for shareholders: Antofagasta almost doubled its interim dividend to 30.1 cents per share, compared with 16.6 cents last year.

Fundamentally, the stock therefore faces an unusual combination of strong commodity pricing and weaker production.

If copper prices remain elevated, the company could continue generating strong cash flow despite the production reduction. But a significant decline in copper would make the lower production outlook much more important.

ANTO Technical Analysis

ANTO is currently trading around 4,080p–4,090p, after opening at 4,020p and reaching roughly 4,124p in today's session. The previous close was 4,029p.

The stock remains in a strong medium-term uptrend, having gained roughly 91% over the past 12 months. However, today's price action is particularly important because the shares are reacting to the newly released results.

4,100–4,125p is the immediate resistance zone. A sustained break above 4,125p would put the February 2026 high around 4,475p back into focus. That would represent a significant continuation signal because 4,475p is currently the 52-week high.

On the downside, 4,020–4,030p is the first support area, essentially corresponding with today's opening/previous-close region. If that fails, the next area to watch is around 3,900–3,950p.

A deeper correction could then target 3,800–3,850p, where previous price activity provides a stronger potential demand zone.

The technical picture therefore remains bullish above 4,000p, but ANTO is approaching substantial resistance. Today's earnings reaction needs to be watched carefully: strong buying above 4,125p would confirm that investors are focusing on record copper prices and stronger margins, while rejection from this area could trigger profit-taking.

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