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Financial Select Sector SPDR Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

업데이트됨: March 15, 2026 at 15:20 UTC

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• +0.00%TA 약세 · Focus 매크로 + 기술

예측 요약

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기간	예상 가격	과거	역사적인	통찰력
내일	$50.11 ▲ +2.49%	어제	$48.89 • +0.00%	Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).
Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).
주	$52.09 ▲ +6.54%	지난주	$50.57 ▼ -3.32%	7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
월	$54.58 ▲ +11.64%	전달	$51.65 ▼ -5.34%	Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
년도	$54.17 ▲ +10.80%	작년	$48.52 ▲ +0.76%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5년	$55.74 ▲ +14.02%	5년 전	$34.21 ▲ +42.91%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

내일$50.11▲ +2.49%

어제$48.89• +0.00%

Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).

주$52.09▲ +6.54%

지난주$50.57▼ -3.32%

7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.

월$54.58▲ +11.64%

전달$51.65▼ -5.34%

Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

년도$54.17▲ +10.80%

작년$48.52▲ +0.76%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5년$55.74▲ +14.02%

5년 전$34.21▲ +42.91%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Risk notice: This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

가격 차트

역사적인예측강세약세

기술적 분석

Bullish

강세

중립적

약세

주요 지표

지시자	값	신호
RSI 14	74.0	Bullish
MACD	0.06	Bullish
SMA 50	$50.85	Mid
SMA 200	$48.83	Mid
EMA 20	$48.47	Above

과거 데이터

Open$48.89

Start Date1999-01-01

Day Range$48.85 – $49.46

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range$48.83 – $54.26

24h Volumen/a

90D Range$48.83 – $56.40

Circulatingn/a

52W Range$43.92 – $56.40

Max Supplyn/a

Open	$48.89	Start Date	1999-01-01
Day Range	$48.85 – $49.46	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	$48.83 – $54.26	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	$48.83 – $56.40	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	$43.92 – $56.40	Max Supply	n/a

지지 및 저항 수준

$50.29R3 — major ceiling

$49.87R2 — swing resistance

$49.45R1 — near-term resistance

$48.89현재 가격XLF

$47.91S1 — near-term supportSupport

$46.45S2 — structure support

$44.98S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near $49.45; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around $47.91; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 1.20% daily realized volatility.

가격 이정표

주요 수준 및 역사적 맥락

Recent$48.89Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High$49.46Local High+1.17%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low$48.85Local Low-0.09%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target$54.58Model 1M+11.64%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target$54.17Model 1Y+10.80%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario$55.74Model 5Y+14.01%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

예측 정확도

우리 모델의 성능

83%

방향성

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (1.20% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

우리의 알고리즘은 최신 가격 조치, 변동성 체제 및 지표 신호를 사용하여 매주 재보정됩니다. 정확도는 기간에 따라 다릅니다. 단기적인 모멘텀이 장기 예측보다 더 안정적입니다.

Tomorrow

86%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

84%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

81%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

76%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±2.5%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

투자 시나리오

오늘 XLF에 $1,000를 투자한다면

Bullish Case

$1140.11

+14.01% from current

목표가격$55.74

대본Breakout continuation

개연성35%

Base Case

$1116.38

+11.64% from current

목표가격$54.58

대본Trend-following baseline

개연성37%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

목표가격$44.98

대본Volatility drawdown

개연성28%

기초: Scenario engine blends live drift (+11.64% / 30D) and realized volatility (1.20% daily).

상관 행렬

30일 롤링 · XLF가 다른 자산과 함께 이동하는 방법

	XLF	QQQ	SPY	TLT	DIA	XLE
XLF	1.00	0.99	0.99	-0.98	0.97	0.94
QQQ	0.99	1.00	1.00	-0.96	0.98	0.92
SPY	0.99	1.00	1.00	-0.97	0.99	0.94
TLT	-0.98	-0.96	-0.97	1.00	-0.96	-0.98
DIA	0.97	0.98	0.99	-0.96	1.00	0.95
XLE	0.94	0.92	0.94	-0.98	0.95	1.00

예측 요인

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bullish · 78/100

24H drift+2.49%

7D drift+6.54%

30D drift+11.64%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bullish Setup · 65/100

RSI73.6 · Bullish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack1/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Risk-On Tentative · 63/100

1M outlook+11.64%

1Y outlook+10.80%

5Y outlook+14.02%

자주 묻는 질문

Q What is the XLF forecast for tomorrow?

XLF is projected near $50.11 versus the latest reference around $48.89. That implies a modeled move of +2.49% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for XLF?

The weekly model points to $52.09, which maps to an expected drift of +6.54% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is $54.58 (+11.64%), while the 1-year target is $54.17 (+10.80%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near $55.74 with a modeled change of +14.02%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around $49.45, while nearest support is around $47.91. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly $48.85 to $49.46. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.