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US 30Y Treasury Yield 예측: 내일, 주, 월, 5년

업데이트됨: February 16 · 2026 at 21:36 UTC
▼ -2.07%Technical analysis Neutral · Focus area Rates + macro

예측 요약

기간예상 가격과거역사적인통찰력
내일4.729% +0.19%어제4.820% +0.84%Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~0.76%).
Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~0.76%).
4.752% +0.68%지난주4.900% +1.66%7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
4.844% +2.64%전달4.810% +1.48%Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
년도4.769% +1.04%작년4.690% +4.92%Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5년4.793% +1.54%5년 전4.470% -4.69%5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
내일4.729% +0.19%
어제4.820% +0.84%
Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~0.76%).
4.752% +0.68%
지난주4.900% +1.66%
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
4.844% +2.64%
전달4.810% +1.48%
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
년도4.769% +1.04%
작년4.690% +4.92%
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5년4.793% +1.54%
5년 전4.470% -4.69%
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
Risk notice:This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

가격 차트

역사적인예측강세약세
4.850%4.801%4.752%4.704%4.655%1W AgoNow7D F

기술적 분석

팔다중립적구입하다
Bearish
2
강세
0
중립적
3
약세

주요 지표

지시자신호
RSI 1437.5 Bearish
MACD0.06 Bullish
SMA 504.825% Below
SMA 2004.811% Below
EMA 204.402% Above

과거 데이터

Open4.820%
Start Date
Day Range4.720% – 4.910%
Market Cap
Monthly Range4.720% – 4.910%
24h Volume
90D Range4.540% – 4.910%
Circulating
52W Range4.410% – 5.080%
Max Supply
Open4.820%Start Date
Day Range4.720% – 4.910%Market Cap
Monthly Range4.720% – 4.910%24h Volume
90D Range4.540% – 4.910%Circulating
52W Range4.410% – 5.080%Max Supply

지지 및 저항 수준

4.885%R3 — upper range
4.822%R2 — swing high
4.775%R1 — near-term cap
4.720%현재 가격US30Y
4.665%S1 — short-term supportSupport
4.618%S2 — trend support
4.555%S3 — range low
Nearest resistance is 4.775%; break above may accelerate momentum.
Nearest support sits near 4.665%; watch reaction around this zone.
Current structure is range-bound with daily volatility around 0.76%.

가격 이정표

주요 수준 및 역사적 맥락
Recent4.720%Current
Current reference level.
90D High4.910%Range High
Highest close in recent lookback window.
90D Low4.540%Range Low
Lowest close in recent lookback window.

예측 정확도

우리 모델의 성능
74%
방향성
Forecast Accuracy
Model confidence is supported by stable volatility and coherent trend signals.
📊
우리의 알고리즘은 최신 가격 조치, 변동성 체제 및 지표 신호를 사용하여 매주 재보정됩니다. 정확도는 기간에 따라 다릅니다. 단기적인 모멘텀이 장기 예측보다 더 안정적입니다.
Tomorrow
78%
Direction hit rate
7 Days
75%
Direction hit rate
30 Days
72%
Direction hit rate
1 Year
67%
Direction hit rate
Avg. Price Error (30D)
±14%
Mean absolute deviation
Last Correct Call
Recent
Directional call ✓

투자 시나리오

오늘 US30Y에 $1,000를 투자한다면
Bullish Case
$1,192.25
+19.22% from current
목표가격5.627%
대본Breakout continuation
개연성25%
Base Case
$1,040.00
+4.00% from current
목표가격4.909%
대본Trend-following baseline
개연성50%
Bearish Case
$880.00
-12.00% from current
목표가격4.154%
대본Volatility drawdown
개연성25%
기초: Scenario engine blends trend drift (-0.06% / 30D) and volatility regime (0.76% daily).

상관 행렬

30일 롤링 · US30Y가 다른 자산과 함께 이동하는 방법
US30Y
US30Y1.00

예측 요인

Market Structure
Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.
Momentum Balanced · 54/100
24H drift+0.19%
7D drift+0.68%
30D drift+2.64%
Technical Signals
Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.
Mixed — Watching · 46/100
RSI37.5 · Bearish
MACD0.06 · Bullish
MA stack1/3 bullish
Macro Context
Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.
Balanced Risk · 52/100
1M outlook+2.64%
1Y outlook+1.04%
5Y outlook+1.54%

자주 묻는 질문

Q What is the US 30Y Treasury Yield forecast for tomorrow?
US 30Y Treasury Yield is projected near 4.729% versus the latest reference around 4.720%. That implies a modeled move of +0.19% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.
Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for US 30Y Treasury Yield?
The weekly model points to 4.752%, which maps to an expected drift of +0.68% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.
Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?
The 1-month target is 4.844% (+2.64%), while the 1-year target is 4.769% (+1.04%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.
Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?
The long-horizon scenario sits near 4.793% with a modeled change of +1.54%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.
Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?
Nearest resistance is around 4.775%, while nearest support is around 4.665%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.
Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?
The latest observed session range is roughly n/a to n/a. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.

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