XRP Price Forecast: Sub-$1.00 Break Leaves XRP at 0.9938

• The token trades at $0.99375, down 0.83% on the day and beneath the $1.00 level it defended all year.
• July spot fund inflows totalled $27.29m against $666m in the first month of trading, with no flows at all on eleven of twenty-two sessions.
• The 0.9860 August low is the last structural support before the round-number floor gives way completely.

Fundamental Analysis: XRP

The institutional bid has thinned to almost nothing. Spot fund inflows in July came to $27.29m, against $666m in the product's first month of trading last November, and eleven of July's twenty-two trading days registered no flows at all. That is not selling pressure so much as an absence of buyers, which for an asset that spent the year leaning on the $1.00 level is functionally the same thing.

The regulatory catalyst that was supposed to change this also slipped. The Senate postponed the CLARITY Act on 27 July to clear other business before the recess. The legislation would classify the token as a commodity, and its passage was the event institutional allocators were positioning for. Its absence removes the reason to buy in August rather than in October.

What remains is a token roughly 59% below its January high with a cost basis problem: a majority of holders are underwater, and every rally into the low $1.20s meets supply from wallets trying to get back to break-even. That overhead supply is why each rebound this summer has been shallower than the last, and it does not clear until either the flows return or the price base rebuilds well below.

Technical Analysis: XRP

The 4-hour chart shows an unbroken descending sequence from $1.085 on 1 August, with no meaningful counter-rally in eighteen days. The move accelerated after 9 August, and price has now closed below $1.00, taking out the level that had held on every previous test this year. The August low sits at $0.9860.

All four averages are above price and declining: $1.0003, $1.0097, $1.0270 and $1.0532. The first resistance is therefore the round number itself at $1.0000, reinforced by the 20-period average, then $1.0097 and $1.0270. Support is $0.9860 and then $0.9800. A four-hour close back above $1.0097 would be the first genuine sign the downtrend is stalling; a break of $0.9860 removes the last shelf beneath it.

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