TSLA Stock Forecast: 351 Rebound Meets the 358 Average
- TSLA trades at 351.12, up 4.23% on the day and pressing into the first serious resistance of its rebound.
- Record deliveries met a missed profit line: revenue beat, earnings did not, and free cash flow was negative.
- 358.91 is the level that decides whether this recovery has another leg.
Fundamental Analysis: TSLA
The 22 July second-quarter report split cleanly in two. Revenue of $28.24bn beat the roughly $26.4bn expected, and deliveries of just over 480,000 vehicles were up around 25% year on year against street estimates nearer 400,000 - a substantial beat achieved after the federal EV tax credit had gone.
The profit line went the other way. Adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share missed the $0.53 consensus, and free cash flow came in at negative $1.09bn. Selling more cars at thinner margins while spending heavily on capacity, autonomy and robotics is a deliberate choice, but it means the volume story and the earnings story are pointing in different directions for now.
That is why the stock fell first and recovered later. The delivery number told investors demand is intact without the subsidy, which is the existential question answered; the margin number told them the payoff is still deferred. With the Fed minutes on 19 August signalling no rush to ease, deferred payoffs are worth less, and the rebound has had to be earned rather than gifted.
Technical Analysis: TSLA
The move that set the structure was the post-earnings collapse in late July, which took the stock from roughly 390 to a low near 310 in the first week of August. Since then it has been a persistent grind higher, with price clearing the 336.35 and 342.38 averages and now trading at 351.12, directly beneath the 358.91 average that marks the top of the damage zone.
Resistance is 358.91 first, then the 376.09 long-term average that capped the stock before earnings. Support is the 342.38 average just reclaimed, then 336.35, with the 310 August low the floor beneath. A four-hour close back below 336 would end the recovery read and put that low back in play.
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