
Silver Forecast: Silver at $68.61 as the Deficit Runs Six Years
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Educational information only. Forecasts are not guarantees.
- Silver trades at $68.61, down 0.47% after tagging $69.88 and stalling beneath the $70 handle.
- The 2026 market deficit is forecast at 46.3 million ounces, wider than last year's 40.3 million.
- The 68.16 average is the level that decides whether the August advance stays intact.
Fundamental Analysis: Silver
The structural story behind this year's advance is a deficit that refuses to close. The 2026 shortfall is projected at 46.3 million ounces, wider than the 40.3 million ounce gap of the prior year, and it marks the sixth consecutive annual deficit. Mine production is forecast to be essentially flat, which removes the most obvious mechanism for the market to rebalance itself.
What makes this year's figure notable is that it widened while the largest single source of demand growth went into reverse. Photovoltaic consumption is forecast to fall 19% in 2026 to roughly 151 million ounces, cutting solar's share of total demand from around 18% to about 14%, as manufacturers thrift silver out of their cell designs. A deficit that expands despite losing a fifth of its fastest-growing demand segment tells you the shortfall is a supply problem, not a demand story.
That distinction matters for how the metal trades. Supply-driven tightness does not respond to sentiment swings the way demand-led rallies do, which is why pullbacks this year have been shallow and quickly bought, but it also means price has already travelled a long way on a fundamental picture that changes slowly.
Technical Analysis: Silver

The 4-hour chart shows an advance that began near 57.72 in early August and has added more than eleven dollars in three weeks. The 19 August dip to 62.72 was the only meaningful interruption, and it was recovered within two sessions. Price reached 69.88 before easing to 68.61, and the averages are stacked in order beneath at 68.1573, 66.6703, 64.8177 and 63.5434.
Resistance is the 69.88 high, then the 70.00 round number that has now capped two attempts. Support is 68.1573, then 66.6703. A close beneath 64.8177 would break the sequence of higher lows and invalidate the trend read.





