Platinum Price Forecast: XPT/USD Steadies at $1,755 on Deficit
- Platinum trades at $1,755.10, down 0.95% on the day but roughly $100 above its late-July base.
- A fourth consecutive annual supply deficit of 297,000 ounces is forecast for 2026, with above-ground stocks covering under three months of demand.
- The $1,751.84 average is the level that has held every pullback since the August breakout.
Fundamental Analysis: Platinum
The supply picture is the whole argument. Forecasts point to a 297,000 ounce deficit for 2026, the fourth consecutive year in which demand exceeds supply, and above-ground stocks are expected to end the year at 1.747 million ounces, which is less than three months of global demand cover. Roughly 80% of primary production comes from a single country, so the buffer is thin and the concentration risk is real.
Demand is not uniformly strong, which is the counterweight. Total demand is forecast to fall 9% to 7.674 million ounces this year while supply rises 2% to 7.377 million, and the first quarter actually registered a 268,000 ounce surplus. The deficit is arriving through the back half of the year rather than being present throughout it.
Where the growth is coming from has also changed. Glass demand is forecast to jump 83% to 377,000 ounces, chemical demand to rise 6% to 612,000 ounces, and hydrogen applications by 7% to 69,000 ounces, with data centre construction adding a new and poorly quantified industrial call on the metal. That mix is less cyclical than the automotive demand that used to set the price, which argues for a firmer floor even if the ceiling is capped by weaker headline demand.
Technical Analysis: Platinum
The 4-hour chart shows a base between roughly $1,620 and $1,660 through late July that broke sharply on 4 and 5 August, with price gapping into the $1,760s in two sessions. The August high is $1,782 set on 7 August and revisited on 16 and 17 August, and the only meaningful pullback was to $1,725 on 13 and 14 August. Price at $1,755.10 sits inside the upper half of that range.
The averages are correctly ordered beneath price at $1,751.84, $1,737.27, $1,710.58 and $1,697.62. Resistance is $1,782 and then the $1,800 round number. Support is $1,751.84 first, then $1,737.27, then $1,710.58. A four-hour close below the 200-period average at $1,697.62 would invalidate the breakout and return price to the July base.
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