Netflix Stock Forecast: NFLX at 80.81 Tests 80.90

• NFLX trades at 80.81, down 0.30% and pressed directly against the 80.90 average that has capped it since the July earnings gap.
• Advertising revenue is guided to roughly $3 billion for 2026, double the prior year, but viewing hours grew just 2% to 97 billion.
• 80.90 is the level that decides the next move: reclaim it and the summer base becomes a bottom, fail and it stays a range.

Fundamental Analysis: Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix's second quarter delivered $12.56 billion of revenue, up 13% but marginally short of the $12.58 billion consensus, with earnings of $0.80 against $0.79 expected. Operating margin of 33.4% came in above the company's own 32.6% target. The growth story management is selling is advertising: roughly $3 billion of ad revenue targeted for 2026, approximately double the $1.5 billion delivered in 2025.

The counterweight is engagement. Viewing hours rose just 2% to 97 billion, a sharp deceleration from the growth rates the platform posted while it was still converting password sharers into subscribers. An advertising business is ultimately sold on inventory, and inventory is hours. Third-quarter revenue guidance of $12.86 billion, implying 12% growth, also landed below the roughly $13 billion the market had penciled in, with full-year revenue guided to $51.0-$51.4 billion.

What the balance produces is a stock that has already been marked down hard, trading well below its 52-week high, and where the marginal buyer is arriving on valuation rather than momentum. Pershing Square disclosed a stake on 13 August, which is the clearest signal yet that the value case has found an audience. Whether that is enough to re-rate the shares depends on the third quarter showing engagement stabilising.

Technical Analysis: Netflix (NFLX)

The 4-hour chart shows a July earnings gap that dropped the shares to a low near 66, a month of base-building through late July and early August, and a steady advance since that has retraced the entire decline. Price at 80.81 is above the 80.27, 78.11 and 77.80 averages, all of which are rising, and is now testing the 80.90 line from below for the third time.

Resistance is 80.90 itself, then the 82.50 area where the late-August advance stalled and where the chart's recent high sits. Support is the 80.27 average immediately beneath price, then 78.11 and 77.80 where the faster averages converge. A close back under 78.11 would invalidate the recovery read and suggest the August advance was a retracement rather than a base.

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