MSFT Stock Forecast: 484 Holds After Azure Tops $100B
- MSFT trades at 484.31, up 0.56% on the day and sitting directly on its fast moving average.
- Azure crossing $100bn in annual revenue is what re-rated the stock; the $41bn quarterly capex bill is what caps it.
- 484 is the pivot: hold it and the mid-August high stays in reach, lose it and 460 opens up.
Fundamental Analysis: MSFT
The 29 July fiscal fourth-quarter report was the event that reset this chart. Revenue came in at $90.01bn, up 18% year on year and roughly $2.4bn ahead of consensus, with adjusted earnings of $4.74 per share against the $4.21 expected. Azure grew 43%, beating the ~40% the market had penciled in, and crossed $100bn in annual revenue for the first time. Shares jumped around 17%.
The counterweight is the cost of getting there. Capital expenditure and finance leases totalled $41bn in the quarter, up 69% year on year, and management acknowledged that customer demand still outpaces available infrastructure. That is a good problem in the narrative sense and an expensive one in cash-flow terms, and it is the line item that decides whether the re-rating is durable.
The wider rate backdrop matters here too. Minutes from the July FOMC meeting, released on 19 August, showed officials willing to tighten further if inflation does not cool, with July CPI still at 3.4%. Higher-for-longer discount rates weigh most on the companies spending hardest for growth several years out, which is exactly the profile Microsoft now has.
Technical Analysis: MSFT
The earnings gap in late July took the stock from roughly 400 straight to the mid-470s, and the follow-through carried it to about 505 by mid-August. Since that high the chart has been a controlled pullback, and price is now resting exactly on the fast moving average at 484.11, with the slower averages far below at 459.73, 437.28 and 426.35.
Resistance is 495 first, then the 505 August high. Support is the 484.11 average price is sitting on, then the 470 gap-fill zone, with 459.73 the deeper shelf. A four-hour close below 470 would break the post-earnings structure and turn the pullback into something more serious.
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