META Stock Forecast: Meta Drops 3.5% to $569 on Capex Pressure
- The shares trade at $568.97, down 3.54% on the session and roughly 18% below the mid-July high.
- Capital spending guidance of $130bn to $145bn for 2026 has cut the operating margin to 31% from 38%.
- The $586.50 average is the first level the shares must reclaim to stop the sequence of lower highs.
Fundamental Analysis: META
Second quarter results on 29 July delivered revenue of $60.8bn, up 28% year on year, which was not the problem. Diluted earnings of $6.18 a share against expectations near $7.17 were. The gap came from spending: capital expenditure of $31.1bn in the quarter against $17.0bn a year earlier, and full-year 2026 guidance of $130bn to $145bn. Operating margin fell to 31% from 38%.
The offsetting argument is that the top line is accelerating, not slowing. Third quarter revenue guidance of $61bn to $64bn implies growth in the mid to high twenties, and advertising demand is evidently not the constraint. If the infrastructure being built converts into either ad performance or a saleable compute business, the current margin compression is a timing issue rather than a structural one.
The market has not been willing to underwrite that assumption. A company can outspend its earnings for a quarter or two on the strength of a narrative; doing it at $145bn a year requires investors to accept a return profile nobody can yet measure. Until there is evidence of the return, every incremental capex disclosure is read as a cost rather than an investment.
Technical Analysis: META
The 4-hour chart shows the July high near $690 breaking down through the second half of the month, with the sharpest damage done around the 29 July results, after which price fell from roughly $640 to the mid-$540s within days. A base formed near $535 in the first week of August and a recovery reached $600 by 13 August, but the last four sessions have unwound most of it.
All four averages now sit above price, at $586.50, $594.40, $600.37 and $610.41, which is a fully bearish stack. Resistance is therefore $586.50 first, then the $594 to $600 pair, then $610.41. Support is the $565.90 overnight level, then $552, then the $535 August low. A close below $535 would invalidate the base and confirm continuation of the July downtrend.
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