AVGO Stock Forecast: Broadcom Defends $392 Before 2 September
- The shares trade at $392.43, down 0.14% and sitting directly on the 200-period average.
- Third quarter results land on 2 September with revenue guided to roughly $29.4bn and AI revenue to $16bn.
- The $388 long-term average is the level that has held every August pullback so far.
Fundamental Analysis: AVGO
Fiscal second quarter results on 3 June showed revenue of $22.19bn, up 48% year on year, with artificial intelligence semiconductor revenue of $10.8bn growing 143%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $15.24bn, or 69% of revenue, and non-GAAP diluted earnings were $2.44 a share. The guidance was the more striking part: roughly $29.4bn of revenue for the third quarter, up 84%, with AI revenue expected to more than triple to $16bn.
That guidance is also the risk. A company growing consolidated revenue 84% year on year has left itself no room to disappoint, and the custom accelerator business driving it is concentrated in a small number of hyperscale customers. Third quarter results are scheduled for 2 September, which puts a hard catalyst two weeks out and explains why the stock has been unwilling to commit in either direction this month.
The share price has already been through one repricing this year, falling from roughly $480 in early June to a low near $355 in early July before rebuilding. What it has not yet done is reclaim that June high, and it will not until the September print either validates the AI ramp or shows it decelerating.
Technical Analysis: AVGO
The 4-hour chart shows the June top near $480 giving way to a July base between roughly $355 and $400, followed by an August rally that peaked around $428 on 12 August. That advance was undone in a single sharp session on 15 August, which returned price to $392 and pushed it back beneath the 20-, 50- and 100-period averages now stacked overhead at $406.55, $401.05 and $396.92.
Resistance runs in three steps: $396.92, $401.05 and $406.55, with $428 above them as the August high. Support is the 200-period average at $388.12, which has caught every pullback this month, and then $375 inside the July base. A four-hour close below $388 would break that pattern and expose the lower half of the July range before results.
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