AUD/USD Forecast: 0.7125 Caps the Aussie After the RBA Hold

• AUD/USD trades at 0.70676, down 0.24% on the day and around 60 pips below the 0.71250 high set on 16 August.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August and said headline inflation is still too high.
• The 0.70487 moving average decides whether this is a pause inside the uptrend or the start of a reversal.

Fundamental Analysis: AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank held at 4.35% on 11 August and framed it as a hawkish pause. The board called headline inflation still too high and trimmed mean inflation elevated, pointed to global oil supply disruption feeding through to fuel and then to other goods, and said inflation is unlikely to return to target until late 2027. That leaves Australian short rates well above the 3.50–3.75% band the Federal Reserve is holding.

The counterweight sits in the same statement. Labour market conditions have eased by a little more than expected in recent months, which limits how long a hawkish stance can be sustained. On the American side, three policymakers dissented in July in favour of a hike, but July CPI at 3.4% against 3.5% in June, softer retail sales and slipping sentiment pushed markets to price out a September move — removing a prop from the dollar rather than adding one.

So the Aussie holds a carry advantage and faces a softer dollar, yet it has stalled below 0.7125. That balance argues for a currency that is supported rather than trending: dip buyers are paid to wait because of the rate gap, while rallies run into the reality that the RBA's next move is as likely to be a cut as a hike once the labour market cools further.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD

The advance began on 30 July near 0.69280 and ran in three legs into the 0.71250 high on 16 August. Price has since rolled over, closing the latest four-hour bar at 0.70677 after failing at 0.70850. The faster moving averages at 0.70878 and 0.70720 now sit above the market while the slower pair at 0.70487 and 0.70284 keeps rising, a compression more typical of a pullback than a completed top.

Resistance begins at 0.70720 and then 0.70878; a four-hour close above the latter puts 0.71250 back in play. Support is 0.70487 first, then 0.70284. A sustained break of 0.70284 invalidates the bullish read, because it would drop price beneath the entire moving-average band and back into the range that capped trade through the first week of August.

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