AMD Stock Forecast: Chipmaker Slips to $506 After Record Quarter
- The shares trade at $506.00, down 1.63% on the session and about 13% below the mid-July high.
- Second quarter revenue reached a record $11.5bn with the data centre segment up 107% year on year.
- The $493 to $498 moving-average cluster is the level that decides whether the August recovery continues.
Fundamental Analysis: AMD
The company reported second quarter results on 4 August: revenue of $11.5bn, up 50% year on year, with the data centre segment contributing $6.7bn and growing 107%. GAAP diluted earnings came in at $1.38 a share. Guidance for the third quarter was set at roughly $13bn plus or minus $300m, implying around 41% year-on-year growth. On the numbers alone this was one of the strongest quarters the company has printed.
The share price has not behaved as though that were true. The stock peaked near $585 in mid-July, before the release, and has spent August between roughly $455 and $525. That pattern is familiar across the accelerator names this summer: the results clear expectations, and the stock sells the news anyway, because the expectations were already embedded in a valuation built during the first half of the year.
What that leaves is a business compounding at 40% to 50% with a share price that has stopped rewarding it. That is not a bearish setup in itself, but it does mean the next move is likely to be driven by the sector's multiple rather than by anything the company reports. Until data centre demand shows a crack, the downside is a de-rating rather than a deterioration.
Technical Analysis: AMD
The 4-hour chart shows the whole structure turning at the mid-July high near $585, with the decline accelerating into the first week of August and bottoming around $455. The rebound carried back to roughly $525 by 11 August, faded to $485 on 14 August, and has since recovered to $506. The 50- and 20-period averages sit just underneath at $497.70 and $493.16, with the 100-period at $488.38 and the 200-period far below at $438.45.
Resistance is $520, the August rebound high, and then $545 where the July decline paused. Support is the $497.70 and $493.16 average pair, then $488.38, and then the $455 August low. A four-hour close below $488 would put the recovery in question and open the lower half of the August range again.
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