Platinum Forecast: 1,804 Near Highs on a 297 koz Deficit
- Platinum trades at $1,804.60, easing 0.66% over the past day after tagging a fresh high at $1,822.
- The market is heading for a fourth straight annual deficit, now put at 297 koz, but the demand side is shrinking.
- $1,763 is the level that decides whether this breakout holds or reverts into the old range.
Fundamental Analysis: Platinum
The structural case rests on the balance. The World Platinum Investment Council's latest quarterly deepened its 2026 deficit forecast to 297 koz from 240 koz, a fourth consecutive year of shortfall. Above-ground stocks are projected to deplete to roughly 1,747 koz by year end - just under three months of global demand cover, which is a thin cushion by any historical standard.
The uncomfortable detail is how that deficit is being produced. Total demand is expected to fall 9% year on year to 7,674 koz, with jewellery down 12% and automotive down 2%. The deficit persists because supply is worse still: mine output is flat and total supply rises only 2%, even as high prices pull recycling up 9%. A shortage caused by supply failure rather than demand strength is a weaker foundation than the headline suggests.
Two demand lines do point the right way. Bar and coin investment is forecast up 27% to 718 koz and industrial demand up 9% to 2,238 koz. Against that, the July FOMC minutes released on 19 August showed officials still willing to tighten, and higher real yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing. The next WPIC update on 9 September is the next scheduled test of the thesis.
Technical Analysis: Platinum
The advance began from roughly $1,610 at the start of August and spent the middle of the month in a $1,700-$1,800 range. A pullback to $1,715 on 17-18 August found buyers, and the last two sessions produced a decisive push to a new high at $1,822 before price settled at $1,804.60. The averages sit in bullish order beneath at $1,763.12, $1,746.54, $1,721.02 and $1,704.51.
Resistance is the $1,822 high, then the round $1,850. Support is the $1,763.12 fast average, then $1,746.54, with $1,721.02 marking the base of the recent pullback. A four-hour close below $1,746 would put price back inside the August range and negate the breakout.
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