Nasdaq 100 drops 1.5% to 28,814 as TSMC turns good news into a chip rout

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5% on Thursday to 28,814, its worst session of the month, after Taiwan Semiconductor raised full-year capital spending guidance to $60–64 billion and chip stocks sold off on the margin implications. The index has now retraced the entire bounce off its early-July test of the 50-day average.

Why it matters

This is the second time in two weeks the Nasdaq has been dragged lower by its semiconductor complex while the rest of the index holds together — the early-July slide to 29,279 rhymed the same way. A leadership handoff is underway inside the index: chips are repricing higher capex against uncertain margin timing, while megacap software and platforms absorb the flows. Historically these internal rotations resolve one of two ways — the index chops sideways while new leadership emerges (the 2023 pattern), or the old leaders' weakness spreads (the 2022 pattern). Breadth outside semis, still respectable, currently argues for the former. The tape has to keep proving it.

Technical analysis

The index closed below its 50-day average for the first time since spring — the same average it tested and held on July 4. First support is the 28,500 shelf, the June consolidation top and the zone that launched the last leg; below that, 28,000 round-number support precedes a much deeper pocket, with the rising 200-day still far below near 26,100. Overhead, the failed zone at 29,200–29,300 (the old 50-day test area) is now resistance, ahead of the record zone near 29,700. Two distribution days on expanding volume inside three sessions is the pattern to respect until a close back above 29,200 cancels it.

BeCoin's forecast read

The model's 24-hour skew stays negative below 29,000, and its weekly path now treats 28,500 as the decision level: hold it and the index rebuilds the same way it did after every chip shakeout this year; lose it on a close and the distribution scenario gets the probability weight, targeting 28,000 first. The month view is still constructive — the capex news that caused the selling is, mechanically, future revenue for the index's biggest names. Index forecasts across all horizons update daily on the BeCoin forecast hub.

See where it goes next. BeCoin's AI model forecasts the Nasdaq 100 across six horizons — tomorrow to 10 years — and fires signals the moment they trigger. Get full access to all 100+ assets → · Educational only — not financial advice.