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US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

dikemas kini: March 13, 2026 at 22:14 UTC

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▲ +0.28%TA Bearish · Focus Kadar + makro

Ringkasan Ramalan

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Jangka masa	Harga Ramalan	lalu	Bersejarah	Wawasan
Esok	4.234% ▼ -1.20%	Semalam	4.273% ▲ +0.28%	Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Minggu	4.162% ▼ -2.88%	Minggu lepas	4.133% ▲ +3.68%	7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
bulan	4.086% ▼ -4.65%	Bulan lepas	4.172% ▲ +2.71%	Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
tahun	4.070% ▼ -5.02%	Tahun lepas	4.274% ▲ +0.26%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 Tahun	4.043% ▼ -5.66%	5 Tahun Lalu	1.635% ▲ +162.08%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Esok4.234%▼ -1.20%

Semalam4.273%▲ +0.28%

Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).

Minggu4.162%▼ -2.88%

Minggu lepas4.133%▲ +3.68%

7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.

bulan4.086%▼ -4.65%

Bulan lepas4.172%▲ +2.71%

Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

tahun4.070%▼ -5.02%

Tahun lepas4.274%▲ +0.26%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5 Tahun4.043%▼ -5.66%

5 Tahun Lalu1.635%▲ +162.08%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Risk notice: This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

Carta Harga

BersejarahRamalanBullishBearish

Analisis Teknikal

Bullish

Berkecuali

Bearish

Petunjuk Utama

Penunjuk	Nilai	Isyarat
RSI 14	93.0	Bullish
MACD	-0.03	Neutral
SMA 50	4.195%	Above
SMA 200	3.917%	Above
EMA 20	3.757%	Above

Data Sejarah

Open4.273%

Start Date1985-01-01

Day Range4.236% – 4.290%

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range3.962% – 4.285%

24h Volumen/a

90D Range3.962% – 4.295%

Circulatingn/a

52W Range3.743% – 4.803%

Max Supplyn/a

Open	4.273%	Start Date	1985-01-01
Day Range	4.236% – 4.290%	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	3.962% – 4.285%	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	3.962% – 4.295%	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	3.743% – 4.803%	Max Supply	n/a

Tahap Sokongan & Rintangan

4.385%R3 — major ceiling

4.355%R2 — swing resistance

4.325%R1 — near-term resistance

4.285%Harga SemasaUS10Y

4.199%S1 — near-term supportSupport

4.071%S2 — structure support

3.942%S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near 4.325%; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around 4.199%; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 0.97% daily realized volatility.

Pencapaian Harga

Tahap utama & konteks sejarah

Recent4.285%Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High4.290%Local High+0.12%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low4.236%Local Low-1.14%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target4.086%Model 1M-4.64%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target4.070%Model 1Y-5.02%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario4.043%Model 5Y-5.65%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

Ketepatan Ramalan

Bagaimana prestasi model kami

83%

arah

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (0.97% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

Algoritma kami ditentukur semula setiap minggu menggunakan tindakan harga terkini, rejim turun naik dan isyarat penunjuk. Ketepatan berbeza mengikut jangka masa — momentum jangka pendek lebih dipercayai daripada unjuran jangka panjang.

Tomorrow

86%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

84%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

81%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

76%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±2.5%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

Senario Pelaburan

Jika anda melabur $1,000 dalam US10Y hari ini

Bullish Case

$1120.00

+12.00% from current

Harga Sasaran4.799%

SenarioBreakout continuation

Kebarangkalian32%

Base Case

$953.56

-4.64% from current

Harga Sasaran4.086%

SenarioTrend-following baseline

Kebarangkalian40%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

Harga Sasaran3.942%

SenarioVolatility drawdown

Kebarangkalian28%

Asas: Scenario engine blends live drift (-4.65% / 30D) and realized volatility (0.97% daily).

Matriks Korelasi

Bergulir 30 hari · cara US10Y bergerak dengan aset lain

	US10Y	UK10Y	US30Y	DE10Y	US2Y
US10Y	1.00	-0.96	0.71	-0.64	-0.17
UK10Y	-0.96	1.00	-0.75	0.75	0.28
US30Y	0.71	-0.75	1.00	-0.78	-0.43
DE10Y	-0.64	0.75	-0.78	1.00	0.82
US2Y	-0.17	0.28	-0.43	0.82	1.00

Faktor Ramalan

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bearish · 38/100

24H drift-1.20%

7D drift-2.88%

30D drift-4.65%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bullish Setup · 77/100

RSI93.2 · Bullish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack3/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Risk-Off Caution · 41/100

1M outlook-4.65%

1Y outlook-5.02%

5Y outlook-5.66%

Soalan Lazim

Q What is the US10Y forecast for tomorrow?

US10Y is projected near 4.234% versus the latest reference around 4.285%. That implies a modeled move of -1.20% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for US10Y?

The weekly model points to 4.162%, which maps to an expected drift of -2.88% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is 4.086% (-4.65%), while the 1-year target is 4.070% (-5.02%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near 4.043% with a modeled change of -5.66%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around 4.325%, while nearest support is around 4.199%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly 4.236% to 4.290%. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.