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Financial Select Sector SPDR Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

更新されました: March 13, 2026 at 11:50 UTC
• -0.00%TA 弱気 · Focus マクロ+テクニカル

予測の概要

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時間枠予想価格過去歴史的洞察力
明日$50.05 ▲ +2.49%昨日$49.64 ▼ -1.63%Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).
Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).
週$52.03 ▲ +6.56%先週$51.23 ▼ -4.68%7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
月$54.53 ▲ +11.67%先月$53.55 ▼ -8.81%Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
年$54.15 ▲ +10.90%去年$47.68 ▲ +2.41%Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5年$55.73 ▲ +14.14%5年前$34.77 ▲ +40.44%5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
明日$50.05▲ +2.49%
昨日$49.64▼ -1.63%
Short-term bias is up with low daily volatility (~1.09%).
週$52.03▲ +6.56%
先週$51.23▼ -4.68%
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
月$54.53▲ +11.67%
先月$53.55▼ -8.81%
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
年$54.15▲ +10.90%
去年$47.68▲ +2.41%
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5年$55.73▲ +14.14%
5年前$34.77▲ +40.44%
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
Risk notice: This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

価格表

歴史的予報強気弱気
$52.73$51.75$50.78$49.80$48.831W AgoNow7D F

テクニカル分析

売る中性買う
Bullish
2
強気
3
中性
0
弱気

主要な指標

インジケータ価値信号
RSI 1476.1 Bullish
MACD0.06 Bullish
SMA 50$51.05 Mid
SMA 200$49.15 Mid
EMA 20$48.70 Mid

過去のデータ

Open$49.64
Start Date1999-01-01
Day Range$48.79 – $49.22
Market Capn/a
Monthly Range$48.83 – $54.26
24h Volumen/a
90D Range$48.83 – $56.40
Circulatingn/a
52W Range$43.92 – $56.40
Max Supplyn/a
Open$49.64Start Date1999-01-01
Day Range$48.79 – $49.22Market Capn/a
Monthly Range$48.83 – $54.2624h Volumen/a
90D Range$48.83 – $56.40Circulatingn/a
52W Range$43.92 – $56.40Max Supplyn/a

サポートとレジスタンスのレベル

$50.23R3 — major ceiling
$49.81R2 — swing resistance
$49.39R1 — near-term resistance
$48.83現在の価格XLF
$47.85S1 — near-term supportSupport
$46.39S2 — structure support
$44.92S3 — deep support
↑
Nearest resistance sits near $49.39; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.
↓
Nearest support is around $47.85; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.
⚖
Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 1.19% daily realized volatility.

価格マイルストーン

主要なレベルと歴史的背景
Recent$48.83Current
Current reference level from live market feed.
24h High$49.22Local High+0.79%
Observed day high from latest market session.
24h Low$48.79Local Low-0.08%
Observed day low from latest market session.
30D Target$54.53Model 1M+11.67%
Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.
1Y Target$54.15Model 1Y+10.89%
Forecast engine long-horizon projection.
5Y Scenario$55.73Model 5Y+14.13%
Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

予測精度

私たちのモデルのパフォーマンス
83%
指向性
Forecast Accuracy
Based on live volatility regime (1.19% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.
📊
当社のアルゴリズムは、最新の価格動向、ボラティリティ体制、指標シグナルを使用して毎週再調整されます。精度は時間枠によって異なります。短期的な勢いは長期的な予測よりも信頼性が高くなります。
Tomorrow
86%
Direction hit rate
7 Days
84%
Direction hit rate
30 Days
81%
Direction hit rate
1 Year
76%
Direction hit rate
Avg. Price Error (30D)
±2.5%
Mean absolute deviation
Last Correct Call
Recent
Directional call ✓

投資シナリオ

今日 $1,000 を XLF に投資した場合
Bullish Case
$1141.31
+14.13% from current
目標価格$55.73
シナリオBreakout continuation
確率35%
Base Case
$1116.73
+11.67% from current
目標価格$54.53
シナリオTrend-following baseline
確率37%
Bearish Case
$920.00
-8.00% from current
目標価格$44.92
シナリオVolatility drawdown
確率28%
基礎: Scenario engine blends live drift (+11.67% / 30D) and realized volatility (1.19% daily).

相関行列

30 日ローリング · XLF が他の資産とどのように移動するか
XLFQQQSPYDIATLTXLE
XLF1.000.990.980.96-0.930.87
QQQ0.991.001.000.98-0.960.92
SPY0.981.001.000.99-0.970.94
DIA0.960.980.991.00-0.960.95
TLT-0.93-0.96-0.97-0.961.00-0.98
XLE0.870.920.940.95-0.981.00

予測要因

Market Structure
Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.
Momentum Bullish · 78/100
24H drift+2.49%
7D drift+6.56%
30D drift+11.67%
Technical Signals
Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.
Mixed — Watching · 56/100
RSI75.7 · Bullish
MACD0.00 · Neutral
MA stack0/3 bullish
Macro Context
Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.
Risk-On Tentative · 63/100
1M outlook+11.67%
1Y outlook+10.90%
5Y outlook+14.14%

よくある質問

Q What is the XLF forecast for tomorrow?
XLF is projected near $50.05 versus the latest reference around $48.83. That implies a modeled move of +2.49% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.
Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for XLF?
The weekly model points to $52.03, which maps to an expected drift of +6.56% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.
Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?
The 1-month target is $54.53 (+11.67%), while the 1-year target is $54.15 (+10.90%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.
Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?
The long-horizon scenario sits near $55.73 with a modeled change of +14.14%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.
Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?
Nearest resistance is around $49.39, while nearest support is around $47.85. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.
Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?
The latest observed session range is roughly $48.79 to $49.22. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.