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UK 10Y Gilt Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

Mis à jour: March 12, 2026 at 22:58 UTC

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▼ -0.35%TA Haussier · Focus Tarifs + macro

Résumé des prévisions

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Laps de temps	Prix prévu	Passé	Historique	Aperçu
Demain	4.443% ▼ -0.90%	Hier	4.499% ▼ -0.36%	Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.58%).
Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.58%).
Semaine	4.383% ▼ -2.24%	La semaine dernière	4.600% ▼ -2.54%	7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Mois	4.281% ▼ -4.51%	Mois dernier	4.366% ▲ +2.68%	Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Année	4.893% ▲ +9.14%	L'année dernière	4.532% ▼ -1.08%	Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 ans	5.302% ▲ +18.27%	Il y a 5 ans	10.590% ▼ -57.67%	5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Demain4.443%▼ -0.90%

Hier4.499%▼ -0.36%

Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.58%).

Semaine4.383%▼ -2.24%

La semaine dernière4.600%▼ -2.54%

7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.

Mois4.281%▼ -4.51%

Mois dernier4.366%▲ +2.68%

Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.

Année4.893%▲ +9.14%

L'année dernière4.532%▼ -1.08%

Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.

5 ans5.302%▲ +18.27%

Il y a 5 ans10.590%▼ -57.67%

5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.

Risk notice: This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

Tableau des prix

HistoriquePrévisionHaussierBaissier

Analyse technique

Bearish

Haussier

Neutre

Baissier

Indicateurs clés

Indicateur	Valeur	Signal
RSI 14	19.9	Bearish
MACD	-0.02	Neutral
SMA 50	4.448%	Above
SMA 200	5.131%	Below
EMA 20	5.451%	Below

Données historiques

Open4.499%

Start Date2021-03-12

Day Range4.371% – 4.612%

Market Capn/a

Monthly Range4.083% – 4.690%

24h Volumen/a

90D Range4.017% – 4.884%

Circulatingn/a

52W Range4.120% – 5.289%

Max Supplyn/a

Open	4.499%	Start Date	2021-03-12
Day Range	4.371% – 4.612%	Market Cap	n/a
Monthly Range	4.083% – 4.690%	24h Volume	n/a
90D Range	4.017% – 4.884%	Circulating	n/a
52W Range	4.120% – 5.289%	Max Supply	n/a

Niveaux de support et de résistance

4.898%R3 — major ceiling

4.773%R2 — swing resistance

4.649%R1 — near-term resistance

4.483%Prix actuelUK10Y

4.317%S1 — near-term supportSupport

4.193%S2 — structure support

4.068%S3 — deep support

↑

Nearest resistance sits near 4.649%; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.

↓

Nearest support is around 4.317%; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.

⚖

Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 3.86% daily realized volatility.

Jalons de prix

Niveaux clés et contexte historique

Recent4.483%Current

Current reference level from live market feed.

24h High4.612%Local High+2.87%

Observed day high from latest market session.

24h Low4.371%Local Low-2.51%

Observed day low from latest market session.

30D Target4.281%Model 1M-4.51%

Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.

1Y Target4.893%Model 1Y+9.15%

Forecast engine long-horizon projection.

5Y Scenario5.302%Model 5Y+18.27%

Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

Précision des prévisions

Comment notre modèle a fonctionné

80%

Directionnel

Forecast Accuracy

Based on live volatility regime (3.86% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.

📊

Notre algorithme est recalibré chaque semaine en utilisant les dernières évolutions des prix, le régime de volatilité et les signaux des indicateurs. La précision varie selon la période : la dynamique à court terme est plus fiable que les projections à long terme.

Tomorrow

83%

Direction hit rate

7 Days

81%

Direction hit rate

30 Days

78%

Direction hit rate

1 Year

73%

Direction hit rate

Avg. Price Error (30D)

±6.4%

Mean absolute deviation

Last Correct Call

Recent

Directional call ✓

Scénarios d'investissement

Si vous investissez $1,000 dans UK10Y aujourd’hui

Bullish Case

$1182.69

+18.27% from current

Prix cible5.302%

ScénarioBreakout continuation

Probabilité32%

Base Case

$954.94

-4.51% from current

Prix cible4.281%

ScénarioTrend-following baseline

Probabilité40%

Bearish Case

$920.00

-8.00% from current

Prix cible4.124%

ScénarioVolatility drawdown

Probabilité28%

Base: Scenario engine blends live drift (-4.51% / 30D) and realized volatility (3.86% daily).

Matrice de corrélation

30 jours glissants · comment UK10Y évolue avec d'autres actifs

	UK10Y	US30Y	DE10Y	US10Y	US2Y
UK10Y	1.00	-0.75	0.75	-0.42	0.28
US30Y	-0.75	1.00	-0.78	0.29	-0.44
DE10Y	0.75	-0.78	1.00	0.18	0.82
US10Y	-0.42	0.29	0.18	1.00	0.66
US2Y	0.28	-0.44	0.82	0.66	1.00

Facteurs de prévision

Market Structure

Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.

Momentum Bearish · 40/100

24H drift-0.90%

7D drift-2.24%

30D drift-4.51%

Technical Signals

Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.

Bearish Setup · 31/100

RSI20.0 · Bearish

MACD0.00 · Neutral

MA stack1/3 bullish

Macro Context

Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.

Balanced Risk · 53/100

1M outlook-4.51%

1Y outlook+9.14%

5Y outlook+18.27%

Foire aux questions

Q What is the UK10Y forecast for tomorrow?

UK10Y is projected near 4.443% versus the latest reference around 4.483%. That implies a modeled move of -0.90% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.

Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for UK10Y?

The weekly model points to 4.383%, which maps to an expected drift of -2.24% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.

Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?

The 1-month target is 4.281% (-4.51%), while the 1-year target is 4.893% (+9.14%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.

Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?

The long-horizon scenario sits near 5.302% with a modeled change of +18.27%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.

Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?

Nearest resistance is around 4.649%, while nearest support is around 4.317%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.

Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?

The latest observed session range is roughly 4.371% to 4.612%. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.