2026year-end
US 10Y Treasury Yield — year-end checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +1.05 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower5.199%Base5.210%Upper5.221%
US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecast — Today and Long-Term Scenarios
Short-term statistical estimates for the next 14 sessions and four weeks, followed by transparent long-term planning scenarios—all anchored to the same verified provider reference.
5.210%-3.00 bp vs prior observationUS10Y · Yield (%)
Daily Treasury constant-maturity yield observation; not a live traded bond price.
Previous observation
5.240%
Previous completed session
Latest yield observation
5.210%
Not a traded bond price
52-week observed range
3.970% – 5.310%
Daily observations over the last 365 days
Source history
16,180 observations
DGS10 · daily
US 10Y Treasury Yield Price History & Forecast
63 observations · 2026-07-15 – 2026-10-13 · Yield (%)
Daily provider candles; missing sessions are omitted. Forecast dates are weekday estimates; exchange holidays are not verified and may shift actual sessions. The shaded interval is model-implied, not guaranteed coverage.
Live technical pulse
Technical Analysis for US10Y
Detailed analysis: 1 day
Daily rules use completed observations; intraday and weekly rules include the provider’s latest candle, which may still be in progress. Composite = (Buy − Sell) ÷ rule count. Strong Buy above 0.55; Buy above 0.15; Neutral above −0.15; Sell above −0.55; otherwise Strong Sell. Close-based rules only; no invented highs, lows or intraday signals. Buy and Sell labels describe indicator rules, not trade orders.
Strong SellNeutralStrong Buy
Buy9 Buy · 1 Neutral · 4 Sell / 14 rulesCompleted daily history through 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Moving Averages
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 10 | 5.26 | Sell |
| EMA 10 | 5.225585 | Sell |
| SMA 20 | 5.159 | Buy |
| EMA 20 | 5.152439 | Buy |
| SMA 50 | 4.9038 | Buy |
| EMA 50 | 4.962695 | Buy |
| SMA 100 | 4.7184 | Buy |
| EMA 100 | 4.779302 | Buy |
| SMA 200 | 4.48805 | Buy |
| EMA 200 | 4.591731 | Buy |
Oscillators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14), Wilder | 61.002975 | Neutral |
| MACD histogram (12,26,9) | -0.012542 | Sell |
| StochRSI (14) | 0 | Buy |
| Momentum (10) | -0.03 | Sell |
US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecast — Next 14 Sessions
Central 80% model-implied intervals, not guaranteed coverage. A session step is an observed trading session; 1W uses five sessions and 1M uses 21 sessions. Dates are estimated weekdays; exchange holidays are not verified and can shift the actual sessions.
| Sessions ahead | Low | High | Midpoint | Yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 · session 1 | 5.152% | 5.275% | 5.213% | +0.32 bp |
| Oct 19, 2026 · session 2 | 5.129% | 5.304% | 5.216% | +0.64 bp |
| Oct 20, 2026 · session 3 | 5.113% | 5.326% | 5.220% | +0.96 bp |
| Oct 21, 2026 · session 4 | 5.100% | 5.346% | 5.223% | +1.28 bp |
| Oct 22, 2026 · session 5 | 5.088% | 5.364% | 5.226% | +1.60 bp |
| Oct 23, 2026 · session 6 | 5.078% | 5.380% | 5.229% | +1.92 bp |
| Oct 26, 2026 · session 7 | 5.069% | 5.395% | 5.232% | +2.24 bp |
| Oct 27, 2026 · session 8 | 5.061% | 5.410% | 5.236% | +2.56 bp |
| Oct 28, 2026 · session 9 | 5.054% | 5.424% | 5.239% | +2.88 bp |
| Oct 29, 2026 · session 10 | 5.047% | 5.437% | 5.242% | +3.20 bp |
| Oct 30, 2026 · session 11 | 5.041% | 5.450% | 5.245% | +3.52 bp |
| Nov 2, 2026 · session 12 | 5.035% | 5.462% | 5.248% | +3.84 bp |
| Nov 3, 2026 · session 13 | 5.029% | 5.474% | 5.252% | +4.16 bp |
| Nov 4, 2026 · session 14 | 5.024% | 5.485% | 5.255% | +4.48 bp |
Weekly Forecast — Next 4 Weeks
Five trading sessions per week. Each dated weekday window uses the model at 5, 10, 15 and 20 session steps. Exchange holidays are not verified and can shift actual session dates.
| Week | Low | High | Midpoint | Yield move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 | 5.088% | 5.364% | 5.226% | +1.60 bp |
| Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026 | 5.047% | 5.437% | 5.242% | +3.20 bp |
| Oct 30, 2026 – Nov 5, 2026 | 5.019% | 5.497% | 5.258% | +4.80 bp |
| Nov 6, 2026 – Nov 12, 2026 | 4.999% | 5.549% | 5.274% | +6.40 bp |
Market Drivers to Monitor
- Central-bank policy and inflation — check current published data; no direction is assumed.
- Government issuance and term premium — check current published data; no direction is assumed.
- Growth expectations and credit conditions — check current published data; no direction is assumed.
US 10Y Treasury Yield — Scenario Assumption Review
The selected annual assumption is 5 bp. Historical reference changes below describe US 10Y Treasury Yield, instrument DGS10; they do not estimate its future return.
| Lookback | Source reference date | Annualized yield shift |
|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2025-10-10 | +115.13 bp / year |
| 3 years | 2023-10-13 | +19.33 bp / year |
| 5 years | 2021-10-12 | +72.37 bp / year |
| 10 years | 2016-10-12 | +34.20 bp / year |
Automated data check: 2026-10-15T05:34:59.080Z. Scenario rates remain user-selected; no human editorial review, probability or forecasting performance is implied. Yield shifts do not estimate a bond investment return.
Investment Scenarios & Calculator
Illustrative outcomes at model interval endpoints. No assigned probabilities or expected return. Yield endpoints are shown; a bond value cannot be inferred without duration and cash flows.
Upper model endpoint
5.560%
+34.95 bp
Midpoint estimate
5.277%
+6.72 bp
Lower model endpoint
4.995%
-21.51 bp
Recent Range Levels
Observed highs and lows over the last 20 and 90 completed source observations. Reference zones, not guaranteed reversal points.
90-observation high90 available observations5.310%
20-observation high20 available observations5.310%
Current reference5.210%
20-observation low20 available observations4.940%
90-observation low90 available observations4.380%
Technical Market Summary
A deterministic summary of the computed daily rules. Yield direction does not represent bond price direction.
Overall daily technical label: Buy
- SMA 50: 4.9038 (Buy).
- EMA 200: 4.591731 (Buy).
- RSI (14), Wilder: 61.002975 (Neutral).
- MACD histogram (12,26,9): -0.012542 (Sell).
Computed indicator votes; no assigned return probability.
US 10Y Treasury Yield Long-Term Planning Scenarios
User-selected assumptions, separate from the short-term model. These scenarios have no assigned probabilities and do not claim a future market value.
Lower assumption
4.960%
-5.00 bp / year for 5 years
Unchanged reference
5.210%
+0.00 bp / year for 5 years
Upper assumption
5.460%
+5.00 bp / year for 5 years
US10Y — Scenario Paths to 2036
Annual planning assumptions: lower −5 bp, base 0, upper +5 bp. Change the assumption above to update every scenario table and chart.
US 10Y Treasury Yield Prediction by Year — 2026 to 2036
Explicit user-selected lower / unchanged / upper assumptions of 5 bp annually. These are planning scenarios, not model forecasts.
| Year | Lower | Base | Upper | Lower / upper change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (year-end) | 5.199% | 5.210% | 5.221% | -1.05 bp / +1.05 bp |
| 2027 (year-end) | 5.149% | 5.210% | 5.271% | -6.05 bp / +6.05 bp |
| 2028 (year-end) | 5.099% | 5.210% | 5.321% | -11.06 bp / +11.06 bp |
| 2029 (year-end) | 5.049% | 5.210% | 5.371% | -16.06 bp / +16.06 bp |
| 2030 (year-end) | 4.999% | 5.210% | 5.421% | -21.05 bp / +21.05 bp |
| 2031 (year-end) | 4.949% | 5.210% | 5.471% | -26.05 bp / +26.05 bp |
| 2032 (year-end) | 4.899% | 5.210% | 5.521% | -31.06 bp / +31.06 bp |
| 2033 (year-end) | 4.849% | 5.210% | 5.571% | -36.06 bp / +36.06 bp |
| 2034 (year-end) | 4.799% | 5.210% | 5.621% | -41.05 bp / +41.05 bp |
| 2035 (year-end) | 4.749% | 5.210% | 5.671% | -46.05 bp / +46.05 bp |
| 2036 (year-end) | 4.699% | 5.210% | 5.721% | -51.06 bp / +51.06 bp |
US 10Y Treasury Yield Monthly Forecast — Next 12 Months
Monthly planning scenarios under the same selected annual assumptions; separate from the short-term statistical model.
| Month | Lower | Base | Upper |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 5.206% | 5.210% | 5.214% |
| Dec 2026 | 5.202% | 5.210% | 5.218% |
| Jan 2027 | 5.198% | 5.210% | 5.223% |
| Feb 2027 | 5.193% | 5.210% | 5.227% |
| Mar 2027 | 5.189% | 5.210% | 5.231% |
| Apr 2027 | 5.185% | 5.210% | 5.235% |
| May 2027 | 5.181% | 5.210% | 5.239% |
| Jun 2027 | 5.177% | 5.210% | 5.243% |
| Jul 2027 | 5.173% | 5.210% | 5.248% |
| Aug 2027 | 5.168% | 5.210% | 5.252% |
| Sep 2027 | 5.164% | 5.210% | 5.256% |
| Oct 2027 | 5.160% | 5.210% | 5.260% |
Year-by-Year Outlook
The scenario bands widen with the selected horizon. No asset-specific future event or editorial review is implied.
20271-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 1-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +6.05 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower5.149%Base5.210%Upper5.271%
20282-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 2-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +11.06 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower5.099%Base5.210%Upper5.321%
20293-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 3-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +16.06 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower5.049%Base5.210%Upper5.371%
20304-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 4-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +21.05 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower4.999%Base5.210%Upper5.421%
20315-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 5-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +26.05 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower4.949%Base5.210%Upper5.471%
20326-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 6-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +31.06 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower4.899%Base5.210%Upper5.521%
20337-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 7-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +36.06 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower4.849%Base5.210%Upper5.571%
20348-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 8-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +41.05 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower4.799%Base5.210%Upper5.621%
20359-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 9-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +46.05 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower4.749%Base5.210%Upper5.671%
203610-year horizon
US 10Y Treasury Yield — 10-year planning checkpoint
Planning scenarioYield change from today: +51.06 bp on the upper path. Recheck central-bank policy and inflation before retaining this assumption.
Lower4.699%Base5.210%Upper5.721%
What Moves the Long-Term Scenarios
Upper-band conditions
Conditions supportive of a higher yield across central-bank policy and inflation, government issuance and term premium, growth expectations and credit conditions. The numerical band follows the selected assumption.
Lower-band conditions
Conditions supportive of a lower reference value across the same drivers. Revisit assumptions as evidence changes; no condition guarantees an endpoint.
Regular Contributions — Scenario Calculator
Monthly contributions under the selected annual growth assumptions. Contributions at month-end; excludes fees, taxes and distributions. Yields cannot support an investment-return calculation.
Investment returns require a price series and valid assumptions.
Short-term + long-term
Data & Forecast Methodology
How the source reference becomes the displayed data, indicators and planning scenarios.
Market data + short-term model1 2 3 4
One reference across every page
Quote, history, forecast and calculators use the same FRED / DGS10 snapshot. Source observation time and automated check time are shown separately. Price changes use the previous completed observation. Bond moves are basis points; index values are points.
Source boundaries
US yields are daily Treasury constant-maturity series via FRED. German and UK yields use monthly OECD long-term government bond series via FRED and are explicitly not live quotes. No placeholder catalogue prices, synthetic candles, or fabricated fundamentals are used.
Short-term statistical model
Additive yield model: 25%-shrunk 60/40 mean daily yield-change drift; normal central 80% model interval. Changes are percentage points, not bond returns. Intervals are not calibrated empirical coverage; jumps, fat tails and parameter uncertainty are excluded.
Signals and refresh
Indicators use completed daily observations and require 200 samples. Composite = (Buy − Sell) / rule count: Strong Buy above 0.55; Buy above 0.15; Neutral above −0.15; Sell above −0.55; otherwise Strong Sell. Each browser checks every 60 seconds; provider snapshots are cached for up to five minutes. Failed refreshes are visibly marked.
Long-term scenarios + controls5 6 7
One scenario anchor
Every planning band uses the same timestamped reference displayed above. Changing the annual assumption updates the scenario chart, yearly bands and regular-contribution calculations.
Explicit planning assumptions
Lower and upper paths apply the selected annual change in opposite directions. The base path keeps the reference unchanged. These paths have no assigned probabilities and are separate from the short-term statistical model.
Market-specific interpretation
Prices use the instrument’s quoted units; indices use points and yield moves use basis points. Fees, taxes and distributions are excluded. A yield path cannot estimate a bond investment return.
Read as a range: short-term estimates and long-term planning scenarios can fall outside every displayed band. Source gaps and unsupported calculations are withheld.
US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecast FAQ
What is the forecast for tomorrow, this week and this month?
The daily table shows session steps; the weekly table shows dated calendar windows with five model steps each. The investment calculator uses five or 21 steps. Monthly long-term values are explicitly selected planning assumptions.
What could US10Y be worth in 2030 or 2036?
Use the annual scenario table and change the growth assumption. The lower, base and upper bands have no assigned probabilities and are not empirically validated targets.
Why might a technical pulse timeframe be unavailable?
Each frame needs at least 200 valid provider candles. Daily prices are never turned into invented intraday candles. Yield sources publish daily or monthly observations and cannot supply intraday OHLC signals.
How current is the reference?
The observation timestamp is the provider's market observation date, not the time this page was checked. Closed markets and monthly yield sources can report earlier observations.
Are these forecasts guaranteed?
No. The short-term model and user-selected long-term assumptions are educational calculations. No forecast performance percentage or guaranteed future value is claimed.
What does a Buy or Sell signal mean?
It is an indicator vote from historical observations, not an instruction or a probability. For yields, a rising yield does not imply a rising bond price.
US 10Y Treasury Yield on becoin
About US 10Y Treasury Yield
This series is a government-bond yield observation, not the price of an individual bond. Coupon, maturity and discount assumptions determine a bond valuation. The source instrument is DGS10, quoted as Yield (%), with daily history.
Source quality: Published yield series with its stated observation cadence. The displayed check time is separate from the market observation time. Missing fundamentals are not estimated.
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Explore Bonds →For educational purposes only. Forecasts and scenarios can be wrong. Past performance does not guarantee future results.