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Alibaba Előrejelzés: Holnap, Hét, Hónap, 5 év

Frissítve: February 16 · 2026 at 21:36 UTC
▼ -41.86%Technical analysis Neutral · Focus area Earnings + trend

Előrejelzési összefoglaló

IdőkeretMegjósolt árElmúltTörténelmiBetekintés
Holnap$153.08 ▼ -1.70%Tegnap$158.73 ▼ -3.40%Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.24%).
Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.24%).
Hét$148.50 ▼ -4.64%Múlt héten$159.14 ▼ -7.14%7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Hónap$141.21 ▼ -9.33%Múlt hónap$146.58 ▼ -7.06%Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Év$139.36 ▼ -10.51%Tavaly$118.33 ▲ +64.30%Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 év$129.90 ▼ -16.59%5 évvel ezelőtt$270.70 ▲ +128.77%5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
Holnap$153.08▼ -1.70%
Tegnap$158.73▼ -3.40%
Short-term bias is down with high daily volatility (~3.24%).
Hét$148.50▼ -4.64%
Múlt héten$159.14▼ -7.14%
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
Hónap$141.21▼ -9.33%
Múlt hónap$146.58▼ -7.06%
Monthly setup reflects upward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Év$139.36▼ -10.51%
Tavaly$118.33▲ +64.30%
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5 év$129.90▼ -16.59%
5 évvel ezelőtt$270.70▲ +128.77%
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
Risk notice:This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

Ártáblázat

TörténelmiElőrejelzésBullishMogorva
$166.51$159.22$151.92$144.63$137.341W AgoNow7D F

Technikai elemzés

EladSemlegesVétel
Bearish
2
Bullish
0
Semleges
3
Mogorva

Kulcsmutatók

IndikátorÉrtékJel
RSI 1431.0 Bearish
MACD9.19 Bullish
SMA 50$159.38 Below
SMA 200$143.87 Above
EMA 20$248.70 Below

Történelmi adatok

Open$152.85
Start Date
Day Range$152.85 – $158.11
Market Cap
Monthly Range$146.75 – $177.18
24h Volume
90D Range$146.58 – $181.33
Circulating
52W Range$99.37 – $189.34
Max Supply
Open$152.85Start Date
Day Range$152.85 – $158.11Market Cap
Monthly Range$146.75 – $177.1824h Volume
90D Range$146.58 – $181.33Circulating
52W Range$99.37 – $189.34Max Supply

Támogatási és ellenállási szintek

$179.06R3 — upper range
$170.17R2 — swing high
$163.51R1 — near-term cap
$155.73Jelenlegi árBABA
$147.95S1 — short-term supportSupport
$141.29S2 — trend support
$132.40S3 — range low
↑
Nearest resistance is $163.51; break above may accelerate momentum.
↓
Nearest support sits near $147.95; watch reaction around this zone.
⚖
Current structure is range-bound with daily volatility around 3.24%.

Ár mérföldkövek

Kulcsszintek és történelmi kontextus
Recent$155.73Current
Current reference level.
90D High$181.33Range High
Highest close in recent lookback window.
90D Low$146.58Range Low
Lowest close in recent lookback window.

Előrejelzés pontossága

Hogyan teljesített a modellünk
73%
Irány
Forecast Accuracy
Higher volatility regime detected; short-term directional confidence is reduced.
📊
Algoritmusunkat hetente újrakalibráljuk a legújabb ármozgás, volatilitási rendszer és indikátorjelek felhasználásával. A pontosság időkeretenként változik – a rövid távú lendület megbízhatóbb, mint a hosszú távú előrejelzések.
Tomorrow
77%
Direction hit rate
7 Days
74%
Direction hit rate
30 Days
71%
Direction hit rate
1 Year
66%
Direction hit rate
Avg. Price Error (30D)
±14%
Mean absolute deviation
Last Correct Call
Recent
Directional call ✓

Befektetési forgatókönyvek

Ha ma befekteti a $1,000-t a BABA-ba
Bullish Case
$1,055.97
+5.60% from current
Irányár$164.45
ForgatókönyvBreakout continuation
Valószínűség25%
Base Case
$1,040.00
+4.00% from current
Irányár$161.96
ForgatókönyvTrend-following baseline
Valószínűség50%
Bearish Case
$816.07
-18.39% from current
Irányár$127.09
ForgatókönyvVolatility drawdown
Valószínűség25%
Alap: Scenario engine blends trend drift (+0.25% / 30D) and volatility regime (3.24% daily).

Korrelációs mátrix

30 napos gördülés · hogyan mozog a BABA más eszközökkel együtt
BABA
BABA1.00

Előrejelzési tényezők

Market Structure
Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.
Momentum Bearish · 29/100
24H drift-1.70%
7D drift-4.64%
30D drift-9.33%
Technical Signals
Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.
Mixed — Watching · 46/100
RSI31.3 · Bearish
MACD9.23 · Bullish
MA stack1/3 bullish
Macro Context
Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.
Risk-Off Caution · 30/100
1M outlook-9.33%
1Y outlook-10.51%
5Y outlook-16.59%

Gyakran Ismételt Kérdések

Q What is the Alibaba forecast for tomorrow?
Alibaba is projected near $153.08 versus the latest reference around $155.73. That implies a modeled move of -1.70% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.
Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for Alibaba?
The weekly model points to $148.50, which maps to an expected drift of -4.64% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.
Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?
The 1-month target is $141.21 (-9.33%), while the 1-year target is $139.36 (-10.51%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.
Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?
The long-horizon scenario sits near $129.90 with a modeled change of -16.59%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.
Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?
Nearest resistance is around $163.51, while nearest support is around $147.95. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.
Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?
The latest observed session range is roughly n/a to n/a. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.

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