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US 10Y Treasury Yield Forecasts for Tomorrow, Week, Month and 5 Years

已更新: March 15, 2026 at 14:10 UTC
• +0.00%TA 看跌 · Focus 利率+宏观

预测总结

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大体时间预计价格过去的历史洞察力
明天4.234% ▼ -1.20%昨天4.285% • +0.00%Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
星期4.162% ▼ -2.88%上星期4.133% ▲ +3.68%7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
月4.086% ▼ -4.65%上个月4.056% ▲ +5.65%Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
年4.070% ▼ -5.02%去年4.308% ▼ -0.53%Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5年4.043% ▼ -5.66%5年前1.621% ▲ +164.34%5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
明天4.234%▼ -1.20%
昨天4.285%• +0.00%
Short-term bias is down with low daily volatility (~0.85%).
星期4.162%▼ -2.88%
上星期4.133%▲ +3.68%
7-day projection follows negative momentum and near-term trend alignment.
月4.086%▼ -4.65%
上个月4.056%▲ +5.65%
Monthly setup reflects downward drift and regime-adjusted volatility.
年4.070%▼ -5.02%
去年4.308%▼ -0.53%
Yearly scenario blends trend slope and macro-sensitive drift; confidence drops as horizon expands.
5年4.043%▼ -5.66%
5年前1.621%▲ +164.34%
5-year view is directional and assumes cycle continuity, not a guaranteed price path.
Risk notice: This forecast is informational only, not financial advice; accuracy depends on volatility, liquidity, macro events, and other external factors.

价格走势图

历史预报看涨看跌
4.285%4.240%4.196%4.151%4.106%1W AgoNow7D F

技术分析

卖中性的买
Bullish
4
看涨
1
中性的
0
看跌

关键指标

指标价值信号
RSI 1486.4 Bullish
MACD-0.03 Neutral
SMA 504.197% Above
SMA 2003.908% Above
EMA 203.751% Above

史料

Open4.285%
Start Date1985-01-01
Day Range4.285% – 4.285%
Market Capn/a
Monthly Range3.962% – 4.285%
24h Volumen/a
90D Range3.962% – 4.295%
Circulatingn/a
52W Range3.743% – 4.803%
Max Supplyn/a
Open4.285%Start Date1985-01-01
Day Range4.285% – 4.285%Market Capn/a
Monthly Range3.962% – 4.285%24h Volumen/a
90D Range3.962% – 4.295%Circulatingn/a
52W Range3.743% – 4.803%Max Supplyn/a

支撑位和阻力位

4.385%R3 — major ceiling
4.355%R2 — swing resistance
4.325%R1 — near-term resistance
4.285%当前价格US10Y
4.199%S1 — near-term supportSupport
4.071%S2 — structure support
3.942%S3 — deep support
↑
Nearest resistance sits near 4.325%; breaks above this area would improve continuation odds.
↓
Nearest support is around 4.199%; repeated failures below this zone would increase downside risk.
⚖
Levels are derived from observed rolling highs/lows with 0.97% daily realized volatility.

价格里程碑

关键层面和历史背景
Recent4.285%Current
Current reference level from live market feed.
24h High4.285%Local High-0.00%
Observed day high from latest market session.
24h Low4.285%Local Low-0.00%
Observed day low from latest market session.
30D Target4.086%Model 1M-4.64%
Forecast engine medium-horizon projection.
1Y Target4.070%Model 1Y-5.02%
Forecast engine long-horizon projection.
5Y Scenario4.043%Model 5Y-5.65%
Long-cycle continuation scenario, not a guaranteed path.

预测准确度

我们的模型表现如何
83%
定向
Forecast Accuracy
Based on live volatility regime (0.97% daily), near-term direction remains more stable than long horizons.
📊
我们的算法每周使用最新的价格行为、波动机制和指标信号进行重新校准。准确性因时间范围而异——短期势头比长期预测更可靠。
Tomorrow
86%
Direction hit rate
7 Days
84%
Direction hit rate
30 Days
81%
Direction hit rate
1 Year
76%
Direction hit rate
Avg. Price Error (30D)
±2.5%
Mean absolute deviation
Last Correct Call
Recent
Directional call ✓

投资场景

如果您今天投资 $1,000 于 US10Y
Bullish Case
$1120.00
+12.00% from current
目标价格4.799%
设想Breakout continuation
可能性32%
Base Case
$953.56
-4.64% from current
目标价格4.086%
设想Trend-following baseline
可能性40%
Bearish Case
$920.00
-8.00% from current
目标价格3.942%
设想Volatility drawdown
可能性28%
基础: Scenario engine blends live drift (-4.65% / 30D) and realized volatility (0.97% daily).

相关矩阵

30天滚动·US10Y如何与其他资产一起移动
US10YUK10YUS30YDE10YUS2Y
US10Y1.00-0.950.70-0.62-0.15
UK10Y-0.951.00-0.750.750.28
US30Y0.70-0.751.00-0.78-0.43
DE10Y-0.620.75-0.781.000.82
US2Y-0.150.28-0.430.821.00

预测因素

Market Structure
Price structure reflects the latest momentum regime and support/resistance interaction.
Momentum Bearish · 38/100
24H drift-1.20%
7D drift-2.88%
30D drift-4.65%
Technical Signals
Signals combine RSI, MACD, and moving average stacks to estimate short-term direction.
Bullish Setup · 77/100
RSI86.6 · Bullish
MACD0.00 · Neutral
MA stack3/3 bullish
Macro Context
Rates, dollar strength, and cross-asset risk appetite influence medium-term paths.
Risk-Off Caution · 41/100
1M outlook-4.65%
1Y outlook-5.02%
5Y outlook-5.66%

常见问题解答

Q What is the US10Y forecast for tomorrow?
US10Y is projected near 4.234% versus the latest reference around 4.285%. That implies a modeled move of -1.20% over the next day, with realized prices still sensitive to intraday volatility.
Q What does the 7-day outlook suggest for US10Y?
The weekly model points to 4.162%, which maps to an expected drift of -2.88% from current conditions. This horizon reacts quickly to momentum shifts, so breaks at nearby levels can change the path faster than long-term targets.
Q How should I read the 1-month and 1-year targets?
The 1-month target is 4.086% (-4.65%), while the 1-year target is 4.070% (-5.02%). The monthly view tracks prevailing trend pressure, and the yearly view reflects broader cycle assumptions and macro sensitivity.
Q Why does the 5-year scenario differ from shorter forecasts?
The long-horizon scenario sits near 4.043% with a modeled change of -5.66%. It compounds cycle continuation assumptions over time, so it should be treated as a scenario envelope rather than a precise endpoint.
Q Where are the most important support and resistance zones right now?
Nearest resistance is around 4.325%, while nearest support is around 4.199%. A clean break above resistance improves continuation odds, while repeated closes under support raise downside risk.
Q How fresh are the recent high/low milestones?
The latest observed session range is roughly 4.285% to 4.285%. These checkpoints are rebuilt from the live market snapshot so milestone context updates with each data refresh.